歐洲央行升息1碼抗通膨，下調經濟成長預期

根據歐洲央行在2026年6月11日發布的資料，歐洲央行管理委員會決議將三大關鍵利率調升25個基點，主要因應中東戰爭所帶來的通膨壓力。此決策的核心目標是確保歐元區的通膨率能在中期內回落至2%的目標水準。

從2026年6月17日起，歐洲央行的三項主要利率將同步上調：存款機制利率上升至2.25%，主要再融資操作利率調升至2.40%，而邊際放款機制利率則來到2.65%。對於一般大眾與投資人而言，這意味著整體的借貸成本將會提高，藉此抑制過熱的物價趨勢。

在通膨預期方面，根據歐洲央行最新預測，2026年的整體通膨率預估平均為3.0%(原2.6%，調升0.4%)，2027年降至2.3%(原2.0%，調升0.3%)，直到2028年才會回到2.0%(原2.1%，調降0.1%)的目標。若剔除波動較大的能源與食品價格，核心通膨率在2026年為2.5%(原2.3%，調升0.2%)，2027年預計也是2.5%(原2.2%，調升0.3%)，並於2028年降至2.2%(原2.1%，調升0.1%)。官方調升今明兩年的通膨預估，主要原因是能源價格走高，並預期這股趨勢將蔓延至食品、商品與服務等領域。

在經濟成長部分，歐洲央行預期2026年的經濟成長率平均為0.8%(原0.9%，調降0.1%)，2027年為1.2%(原1.3%，調降0.1%)，2028年則為1.5%(原1.4%，調升0.1%)。相比先前的預測，歐洲央行下調2026年與2027年的經濟成長展望，主要反映戰爭對大宗商品市場、民眾實質所得以及市場信心造成顯著的負面衝擊。目前經濟前景仍充滿不確定性，通膨面臨上升風險，而經濟成長則面臨下降風險。

針對未來的貨幣政策走向，歐洲央行強調將密切監控市場情勢，並採取依賴數據且逐次會議評估的策略。決策單位並未預先承諾特定的利率路徑，未來的行動將取決於即將公布的經濟與金融數據，以及潛在的通膨動態與貨幣政策傳導強度。

此外，歐洲央行的資產購買計畫(APP)與疫情緊急資產購買計畫(PEPP)的投資組合正以可預測的速度縮減，因為當局不再將到期證券的本金進行再投資。歐洲央行也重申，已準備好在授權範圍內調整所有工具，並可隨時啟動傳導保護工具(TPI)，以對抗對歐元區貨幣政策傳導構成嚴重威脅的市場失序動態，確保價格穩定目標得以實現。

Monetary policy decisions 11 June 2026

The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. In line with this commitment, it today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. The war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area.

In the baseline of the new Eurosystem staff projections, headline inflation is expected to average 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food, the baseline foresees an average of 2.5% in 2026 and 2027 and 2.2% in 2028. Compared with March, staff have revised up their baseline projection for inflation in 2026 and 2027 owing to a higher path for energy prices, which, to some extent, is expected to feed into food, goods and services inflation. The baseline sees economic growth at an average of 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028. This is a downward revision for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a more pronounced impact of the war on commodity markets, real incomes and confidence.

The outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth. The full implications of the war for medium-term inflation and growth will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the scale of its indirect and second-round effects. This uncertainty is also reflected in the broad range of outcomes for inflation and growth in the updated illustrative scenarios put together by Eurosystem staff. These will be published with the staff projections on the ECB’s website.

With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the war. It will closely monitor the situation and follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be increased to 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65% respectively, with effect from 17 June 2026.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

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The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.

圖資來源：歐洲央行