美國聯準會連5次會議不動利率，預期2024年有3碼降息空間

美國聯準會3月20日召開2024年第2次決策會議，決議維持基準聯邦基金利率在5.25%~5.5%不變，連續5次會議沒有調整，是2001年以來最高水準。

聯準會在聲明中表示，最近的指標顯示經濟活動一直在穩步擴張，就業成長依然強勁，失業率也維持在較低水準，過去一年通膨有所放緩，但仍然位處高位。委員會力求長期達到最大就業，與通膨率回到2%的目標，判斷實現就業與通膨目標的風險正在趨向更好的平衡，經濟前景仍然不明朗，委員會仍然高度關注通膨風險。

委員會後續將會仔細評估經濟數據，預期在對通膨率持續朝向2%目標更有信心的邁進之前，聯邦基金利率區間範圍不宜調降。此外聯準會將會繼續減少持有美國公債、機構債務，以及抵押貸款證券(MBS)。減持美國公債目標仍然是每月600億美元，抵押貸款證券(MBS)每月350億美元。

這次會議公布的經濟展望，預估美國實質國內生產毛額(GDP)成長率2024年為2.1%，相較2023年12月的預估值上修0.7%；2025年為2%，上修0.2%；2026年為2%，上修0.1%。預估美國失業率2024年為4%，相較2023年12月的預估值下修0.1%；2025年為4.1%，沒有調整；2026年為4%，下修0.1%。

關於美國通膨率展望，預估個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數成長率2024年為2.4%，與2023年12月預估值相同；2025年為2.2%，上修0.1%；2026年為2%，沒有調整。預估核心PCE物價指數成長率2024年為2.6%，相較2023年12月預估值上修0.2%；2025年為2.2%，沒有調整；2026年為2%，沒有調整。

對於聯邦基金利率預估，2024年將下探到4.6%，與2023年12月的預估值相同；2025年為3.9%，上修0.3%；2026年為3.1%，上修0.2%。

點陣圖部分，19位委員當中有10位(53%)預估2024年聯邦基金利率區間會在4.5%~4.75%以下，相較目前5.25%~5.5%低3碼(0.75%)。19位委員當中有15位(79%)預估2025年聯邦基金利率區間會在3.75%~4%之間，相較目前5.25%~5.5%低6碼(1.5%)，19位委員當中有15位(79%)預估2026年聯邦基金利率區間會在3%~3.25%之間，相較目前5.25%~5.5%低9碼(2.25%)。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (March 20, 2024)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued March 20, 2024 (March 20, 2024)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on March 20, 2024:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 5.4 percent, effective March 21, 2024.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective March 21, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 5.5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 5.3 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
• Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 5.5 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.