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  • 澳洲央行宣布升息1碼(0.25%),調升後指標現金利率來到3.85%,是2012年4月以來新高
  • 澳洲央行總裁洛威在聲明中表示,澳洲通膨率已經過了峰值,但7%的水準仍然過高,要回到目標範圍內還需要一段時間
  • 鑒於在合理時間將通膨率回復到目標水準的重要性,委員會認為有必要進一步提高利率

澳洲央行5月2日宣布升息1碼(0.25%),調升後指標現金利率來到3.85%,是2012年4月以來新高。

澳洲央行自2022年5月1日起開始升息,5月1日升息1碼、6月7日升息2碼、7月5日升息2碼、8月2日升息2碼、9月6日升息2碼、10月4日升息1碼、11月1日升息1碼、12月6日升息1碼,2023年2月7日升息1碼,2023年3月7日升息1碼,加上這次共計升息11次,累計升幅為15碼(3.75%),基準利率從0.1%歷史低點,1年的時間回升到3.85%。

澳洲央行總裁洛威在聲明中表示,澳洲通膨率已經過了峰值,CPI年增率從2022年第四季的7.8%,降到2023年第一季7%,但7%的水準仍然過高,要回到目標範圍內還需要一段時間,鑒於在合理時間將通膨率回復到目標水準的重要性,委員會認為有必要進一步提高利率。預期通膨率在2023年為4.5%,到2025年中會降到3%。預估2023年國內生產毛額(GDP)成長率為1.25%,到2025年中會成長到2%左右,因經濟成長預估低於趨勢水準,失業率預估將在2025年中會逐漸上升到4.5%。

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision (2 May 2023)

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent. It also increased the rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 3.75 per cent.

Inflation in Australia has passed its peak, but at 7 per cent is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range. Given the importance of returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe, the Board judged that a further increase in interest rates was warranted today.

The Board held interest rates steady last month to provide additional time to assess the state of the economy and the outlook. While the recent data showed a welcome decline in inflation, the central forecast remains that it takes a couple of years before inflation returns to the top of the target range; inflation is expected to be 4½ per cent in 2023 and 3 per cent in mid-2025. Goods price inflation is clearly slowing due to a better balance of supply and demand following the resolution of the pandemic disruptions. But services price inflation is still very high and broadly based and the experience overseas points to upside risks. Unit labour costs are also rising briskly, with productivity growth remaining subdued.

The recent Australian data also confirmed that the labour market remains very tight, with the unemployment rate at a near 50-year low. Many firms continue to experience difficulty hiring workers, although there has been some easing in labour shortages and the number of vacancies has declined a little.

The Board’s priority remains to return inflation to target. High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case. Today’s further adjustment in interest rates will help in this regard.

Wages growth has picked up in response to the tight labour market and high inflation. At the aggregate level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up. The Board remains alert to the risk that expectations of ongoing high inflation contribute to larger increases in both prices and wages, especially given the limited spare capacity in the economy and the historically low rate of unemployment. Accordingly, it will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms.

The Board is still seeking to keep the economy on an even keel as inflation returns to the 2–3 per cent target range, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one. The central forecast is for the economy to continue growing, albeit at a below-trend pace; GDP is forecast to increase by 1¼ per cent this year and around 2 per cent over the year to mid-2025. Given the expected below-trend growth in the economy, the unemployment rate is forecast to increase gradually to be around 4½ per cent in mid-2025.

A significant source of uncertainty continues to be the outlook for household consumption. The combination of higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and the earlier decline in housing prices is leading to a substantial slowing in household spending. While some households have substantial savings buffers, others are experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances. There are also uncertainties regarding the global economy, which is expected to grow at a below-average rate over the next couple of years.

Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve. The Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.

資料來源: 經濟日報