美國聯準會維持利率不變，首度深度討論縮減購債(QE)規模

美國聯準會7月28日決策會議後宣布維持利率與購債(QE)規模不變，聯邦基金利率仍位於0%~0.25%，每月購債規模目標維持1,200億美元，當中800億美元投入公債，400億美元投入抵押貸款債券(MBS)。

會後聲明中表示，這次會議首度深度討論到縮減QE的時間與組合，包括時機、速度，以及縮減的組成，可能會同時縮減購買公債與MBS，但還沒有做出決定，將會在調整政策前提前向市場通知。聯準會主席鮑威爾表示目前美國就業市場正朝向非常強勁的方向前進，不過現在還不是討論升息的時刻，距離升息還很遠，聯準會不會在縮減QE之前就升息。

關於通膨的看法，鮑威爾表示通膨正高於聯準會2%的目標值，且持續的時間會比聯準會預期的還要長，幅度也更高，預期中期通膨會回落，但無法估計時間點，必要時會運用工具引導通膨回到2%的目標。目前失業率5.9%低估當前就業市場，現階段職缺創紀錄卻有很多人失業，這種情況很不尋常，可能是人們挑工作，重點是人們需要工作，最終將會找到自己想要的工作。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (July 28, 2021)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued July 28, 2021

Last Update: July 28, 2021