歐洲央行決議維持利率不變，預期2024年通膨率會降到2.7%

歐洲央行12月14日的決策會議，決議維持利率水準不變，連續2次會議沒有變動利率，歐元區三大主要利率分別是隔夜存款利率為4%，主要再融資利率(MRO)為4.5%、隔夜貸款利率(MLF)為4.75%，仍然是1999年歐元問世之後23年多來新高。

回顧ECB自2022年7月21日升息2碼開始啟動本波升息循環，至今共計升息10次，宣布時間依序為2022年7月21日升息2碼，2022年9月5日升息3碼，2022年10月27日升息3碼，2022年12月15日升息2碼，2023年2月2日升息2碼，2023年3月16日升息2碼，2023年5月4日升息1碼，2023年6月15日升息1碼，2023年7月27日升息1碼，以及2023年9月14日升息1碼，2022年共計升息4次，累計升幅為10碼(2.5%)，2023年升息6次，升幅為8碼(2%)，合計升幅18碼(4.5%)。

ECB在對外聲明中表示，預期通膨率(CPI成長率)將在2024年起逐步下降，到2025年時會接近理事會設定的2%目標。預期2023年平均通膨率為5.4%，2024年會降到2.7%，2025年會繼續降到2.1%，2026年會進一步降低到1.9%。

預期不含能源與食品後的核心通膨率(核心CPI成長率)2023年平均為5%，2024年為2.7%，2025年為2.3%，2026年會進一步縮減到2.1%。

預期歐元區2023年經濟成長率為0.6%，2024年會小幅上升到0.8%，2025年與2026年預期會進一步上升到1.5%。

關於先前量化寬鬆的資產購買計畫(APP)，仍維持在歐元區內不再對到期的證券回收本金進行再投資，先前購入的投資組合以可衡量和可預測的速度下降中。而針對疫情的緊急購買計畫(PEPP)計畫在2024年上半年到期證券本金還會全額再投資，2024年下半年計畫將整體PEPP投資組合每月減少75億歐元，2024年底計畫停止將期證券本金進行再投資。

Monetary policy decisions (14 December 2023)

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. While inflation has dropped in recent months, it is likely to pick up again temporarily in the near term. According to the latest Eurosystem staff projections for the euro area, inflation is expected to decline gradually over the course of next year, before approaching the Governing Council’s 2% target in 2025. Overall, staff expect headline inflation to average 5.4% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Compared with the September staff projections, this amounts to a downward revision for 2023 and especially for 2024.

Underlying inflation has eased further. But domestic price pressures remain elevated, primarily owing to strong growth in unit labour costs. Eurosystem staff expect inflation excluding energy and food to average 5.0% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.

The past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully to the economy. Tighter financing conditions are dampening demand, and this is helping to push down inflation. Eurosystem staff expect economic growth to remain subdued in the near term. Beyond that, the economy is expected to recover because of rising real incomes – as people benefit from falling inflation and growing wages – and improving foreign demand. Eurosystem staff therefore see growth picking up from an average of 0.6% for 2023 to 0.8% for 2024, and to 1.5% for both 2025 and 2026.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. Based on its current assessment, the Governing Council considers that the key ECB interest rates are at levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to this goal. The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that its policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.

The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. In particular, its interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The key ECB interest rates are the primary tool for setting the monetary policy stance. The Governing Council also decided today to advance the normalisation of the Eurosystem’s balance sheet. It intends to continue to reinvest, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) during the first half of 2024. Over the second half of the year, it intends to reduce the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average. The Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP portfolio is declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

The Governing Council intends to continue to reinvest, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP during the first half of 2024. Over the second half of the year, it intends to reduce the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average. The Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.

The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.