聯準會維持利率不變，明年(2024年)有降息3碼的可能性

美國聯準會12月13日決策會議，決議維持基準聯邦基金利率區間在5.25%~5.5%不變，連續3次會議沒有變動利率，仍然是2001年之後22年來的新高水準，這是2023年最後一次決策會議。

回顧聯準會自2022年3月16日展開這波升息循環，共計升息11次(2022年7次共17碼+2023年4次共4碼)，累計升幅達21碼(5.25%)，這11次升息的宣布時間與升息幅度，依序為2022年3月16日升息1碼、2022年5月4日升息2碼、2022年6月15日升息3碼、2022年7月27日升息3碼、2022年9月21日升息3碼、2022年11月2日升息3碼，2022年12月15日升息2碼，2023年2月1日升息1碼，2023年3月22日升息1碼，2023年5月3日升息1碼，2023年7月26日升息1碼。

聯準會在會後聲明中表示，最近指標顯示經濟活動成長速度相較第三季的強勁成長有所放緩，自今年(2023年)稍早以來，就業成長有所放緩，但仍保持強勁，失業率也維持在較低的水準，過去一年通膨有所放緩，但仍然位於高檔。美國銀行體系健全且富有彈性，家庭與企業的金融與信貸條件收緊，可能對經濟活動、就業與通膨造成壓力，這些影響程度仍具不確定性，委員會仍高度關注通膨風險。

委員會力求長期內達到最大就業，與通膨率回到2%。為支持這些目標，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率目標維持在5.25%~5.5%。委員會將會繼續評估更多資訊與貨幣政策的影響，在確定適當的額外政策緊縮程度時，委員會將考慮貨幣政策的累積緊縮、貨幣政策影響經濟活動與通膨的遞延性，以及經濟、通膨率和金融發展。此外委員會將會繼續減少持有的國債、機構債與抵押貸款證券(MBS)，國債方面先前購入的部分，每月上限600億美元到期回收的本金不再投入購債，抵押貸款證券(MBS)方面先前購入的部分，每月上限350億美元到期回收的本金不再投入購買，堅定致力將通膨率恢復到2%的目標。

這次會議公布的經濟展望中，預期2023年實質GDP成長率為2.6%，相較9月的會議上修0.5%；預期2024年實質GDP成長率會縮減到1.4%，相較9月的會議下修0.1%。預期2023年失業率為3.8%，與9月的會議相同；預期2024年失業率會上升到4.1%，與9月的會議相同。預期2023年PCE年增率(通膨率)為2.8%，相較9月的會議下修0.5%；預期2024年PCE年增率(通膨率)會縮減到2.4%，相較9月的會議下修0.1%。預期2023年核心PCE年增率(通膨率)為3.2%，相較9月的會議下修0.5%；預期2024年核心PCE年增率(通膨率)會縮減到2.4%，相較9月的會議下修0.2%。

經濟展望中對於2023年聯邦基金利率中值預估為5.4%，相較9月的預估值下修0.2%；2024年聯邦基金利率中值預估為4.6%，相較9月的預估值下修0.5%，與2023年的預估值相較下降0.8%，意謂明年(2024年)保有3碼的降息空間。

這次會議公布的點陣圖，對於2023年聯邦基金利率區間預估，19位委員全數集中在5.25%~5.5%；對於2024年聯邦基金利率區間預估，19位委員當中，有16位(84%)預估會在4.75%~5%以下(相較目前低0.5%/2碼)，當中11位(58%)預估會在4.5%~4.75%以下(相較目前低0.75%/3碼)。

圖資來源：美國聯準會

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (December 13, 2023)

Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued December 13, 2023 (December 13, 2023)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on December 13, 2023:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 5.4 percent, effective December 14, 2023.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective December 14, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 5.5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 5.3 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
• Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 5.5 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.