聯準會降息1碼至3.5%~3.75%，主席鮑威爾示警就業風險

根據聯準會主席鮑威爾在2025年12月10日發布的記者會與FOMC聲明資料，聯準會(Fed)在本次會議中做出關鍵的貨幣政策調整，決議將政策利率調降1/4個百分點(1碼/0.25%)。聯邦基金利率的目標區間因此降至3.5%至3.75%。鮑威爾主席指出，聯準會仍堅定專注於實現最大就業和穩定物價的雙重目標。

政策轉向：風險平衡與連續降息

鮑威爾在開場聲明中明確表示，這次降息是基於對就業和通膨風險平衡的考量。他強調，儘管美國政府近2個月的重要數據尚未公布，但現有指標顯示，自10月會議以來，就業和通膨前景並無太大變化。然而，就業市場的狀況正逐漸降溫，且通膨率仍舊偏高。

委員會最終的決策反映出風險平衡的轉變：雖然通膨風險仍傾向於上行，但就業的下行風險在近幾個月已明顯升高，形成一個「富有挑戰性」的局面。鮑威爾表示，這次降息的目的在於採取平衡的做法，以支持勞動力市場的穩定，同時讓通膨在關稅影響消退後，能持續恢復向2%的目標邁進。

值得注意的是，本次降息是聯準會在連續3次會議中所採取的第3次降息行動，累計調降幅度達3/4個百分點(0.75%)。這使得目前的政策立場處於中性利率區間的合理預估範圍內，讓聯準會能根據未來數據、不斷演變的前景以及風險平衡來決定後續的調整時間與幅度。根據《經濟預測摘要》(SEP)中位數預測，聯邦基金利率在2026年底的適當水準為3.4%，2027年底為3.1%，與9月的預測維持不變。

經濟展望與就業市場警訊

儘管缺乏官方的就業數據，但多項指標顯示，經濟活動仍以溫和的步調擴張。消費者支出看起來維持穩健，企業固定投資也持續成長。不過，房地產領域的活動依然疲軟。鮑威爾指出，房地產領域的活動依然疲軟。SEP的中位數預測，真實國內生產毛額(Real GDP)預計今年將成長1.7%，明年則預計成長2.3%，這略高於9月的預測值。

勞動力市場方面，最接近的官方報告是9月份的數據，顯示失業率持續略微上升，達到4.4%。職位增加的速度自今年初以來已明顯放緩。鮑威爾解釋，勞動需求已明顯趨於疲軟。在這樣較不活躍且稍顯疲軟的勞動力市場中，就業的下行風險確實有所上升。SEP的中位數預測顯示，今年底的失業率將為4.5%。

通膨數據與關稅影響

通膨率自2022年中期的最高點以來已顯著緩解，但相較於2%的長期目標，仍處於偏高水準。

截至9月為止的12個月內，總體個人消費支出(PCE)價格和剔除波動性食物與能源後的核心PCE價格都呈現2.8%的年增率。這些讀數相較於今年稍早有所上升，鮑威爾將此歸因於關稅的影響導致商品通膨有所加快。相較之下，服務業的通膨趨緩似乎仍在持續。

鮑威爾預期，關稅對通膨的影響應是相對短暫的，實際上是價格水準的「一次性轉變」。在SEP中，總體PCE通膨的中位數預測今年為2.9%，明年為2.4%，這比9月份的預測略低。

政策執行與儲備管理新措施

在貨幣政策執行層面，聯準會判斷準備金餘額已降至「充足」水準。因此，聯準會決議啟動短期美國公債的購買，其唯一目的在於隨時間推移維持充足的準備金供應。

紐約聯邦準備銀行發布的聲明詳述，在第1個月，準備金管理採購的金額將達到$400億美元，並可能在幾個月內保持較高水準，以緩解預期的近期貨幣市場壓力。

聯準會為確保聯邦基金利率維持在目標範圍內，取消常備附買回協議(Repo operations)的總體上限。常備隔夜附買回協議的操作利率設定為3.75%，常備隔夜附賣回協議的發行利率則為3.5%。此外，聯準會理事會一致投票決定將支付給準備金餘額的利率(IORB)降至3.65%，並將主要信貸利率(Primary credit rate)調降1/4個百分點至3.75%，這些決定將於2025年12月11日生效。

在這次貨幣政策行動的投票中，共有9位委員投贊成票。有3位委員投下反對票，其中Stephen I. Miran傾向於降息1/2個百分點，而Austan D. Goolsbee和Jeffrey R. Schmid則傾向於保持利率不變。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (December 10 2025)

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate the Committee will carefully assess incoming data the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information including readings on labor market conditions inflation pressures and inflation expectations and financial and international developments.

The Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell Chair; John C. Williams Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting; and Austan D. Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

Implementation Note issued December 10 2025 (December 10 2025)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on December 10 2025:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to lower the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.65 percent effective December 11 2025.
• As part of its policy decision the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York until instructed otherwise to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective December 11 2025 the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations at a rate of 3.75 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.5 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and if needed other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves.
• Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities. Reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills."

• In a related action the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point decrease in the primary credit rate to 3.75 percent effective December 11 2025. In taking this action the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York Philadelphia St. Louis and San Francisco.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

圖資來源：美國聯準會