歐盟執委會調降2024年歐元區經濟成長率與通膨率預估值

歐盟執委會2月15日公布2023年冬季經濟預測，預估歐元區2024年實質國內生產毛額(GDP)成長率為0.8%，相較秋季預測下修0.4%；預估2025年實質GDP成長率會擴大到1.5%，相較秋季預測上修0.4%。2023年歐元區實質GDP成長率下修成為0.5%，相較秋季預測下修0.1%。

預估歐元區2024年通膨率會縮減到2.7%，相較秋季預測下修0.5%，相較下修後2023年通膨率5.4%(下修0.2%)漲幅減半，預期2025年歐元區通膨率有機會持續降到2.2%，與秋季預估值相同。

歐盟執委會表示，2023年歐元區經濟成長受到多項因素影響，主因之一為家庭支出下降，加上利率相對偏高。預期未來隨著通膨率持續下降，實質工資成長，消費者支出將會增加，經濟表現將會逐漸好轉。2023年通膨率下降速度超過預期，主因為能源價格下跌所致。然而各國對於能源支持政策將要結束，加上當前地緣政治緊張局勢，可能導致通膨上升。總體而言，通膨率將會持續緩解。

圖資來源：歐盟執委會

Inflation in the EU will fall faster and economy grow more slowly, new forecast says (15 February 2024)

The Commission’s new forecast for the EU economy points to lower growth rates than anticipated in 2023. Inflation will also speed up its current downward trend this year. In 2024, growth is now expected to reach 0.9% (from 1.3%) in the EU and 0.8% (from 1.2%) in the euro area. In the meantime, inflation in the EU should fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, and then drop to 2.5% in 2025. 

In 2023, growth was held back by a number of factors, since households had less to spend and interest rates were high. This year, however, economic activity in the EU is expected to gradually accelerate again. As inflation continues to drop, real wages will grow. In tandem with a resilient labour market, consumers are therefore expected to spend more. In addition, trade with foreign partners should normalise, after a very weak performance last year. 

Inflation in 2023 dropped faster than expected, largely driven by falling energy prices. However, energy support measures across Member States will end soon. The current geopolitical tensions, notably in the Middle East, may also create trade disruptions. These two elements could still contribute to raising prices. But, overall, inflation will continue to ease, keeping rising food prices in check. 

The Commission publishes four economic forecasts throughout a given year, covering GDP and inflation data for all Member States, the EU and the euro area.