美國聯準會降息1碼，並宣布12月結束量化緊縮

美國聯準會(Fed)於10月29日結束為期兩天的政策會議，決定將聯邦資金利率目標區間調降1碼(0.25%)，基準聯邦基金利率區間落於3.75%至4%之間。

這項貨幣政策調整的投票結果為10票贊成、2票反對。在反對票中，新任理事米蘭(Stephen Miran)主張應更大幅度降息0.5%，而堪薩斯聯準銀行總裁施密德(Jeffrey R. Schmid)則反對本次降息，傾向維持利率不變。

12月結束量化緊縮(QT)並調整資產組合

除了降息，聯準會也宣布一項重大的貨幣政策實施決定：將於2025年12月1日結束縮減整體證券持有量的行動，即終止量化緊縮(QT)。

聯準會主席鮑威爾指出，他們長期以來計畫在準備金水準略高於「充裕準備金」時停止縮表，而目前市場跡象已顯示達到此一標準。在過去3年半期間，聯準會的證券持有量已下降2.2兆美元。

自12月1日起，聯準會將進入資產負債表正常化的下一階段。所有到期的美國公債本金將全數於拍賣時展期(Rollover)。更重要的是，聯準會決定將所有機構債和機構抵押擔保證券(MBS)到期的本金，重新投資到短期公債(Treasury bills)當中。這項調整目的在於將聯準會的投資組合更趨向於主要由美國公債組成，並縮短其投資組合的加權平均期限。

經濟活動略強於預期，但就業風險提高

儘管聯邦政府近期一度關門，導致部分重要數據延遲發布，但現有指標顯示美國經濟活動仍以溫和的速度擴張。鮑威爾提到，在政府關門前取得的數據顯示，經濟成長的走勢可能「略為穩健」。

具體來看，今年上半年國內生產毛額(GDP)成長1.6%。雖然這相較於去年2.4%的成長速度有所放緩，但近期表現主要反映更強勁的消費者支出。此外，設備和無形資產的企業投資持續成長，但房屋部門的活動依舊疲軟。鮑威爾預期，政府關門對經濟造成的影響應會在關門結束後逐步回復。

勞動市場降溫訊號明確，就業下行風險增加

聯準會觀察到勞動市場狀況正逐步冷卻。雖然到8月為止，失業率仍相對較低，但今年以來，工作機會的成長已經明顯放緩。鮑威爾表示，這部分放緩是受到移民減少及勞動參與率下降，導致勞動力成長趨緩的影響，但勞動需求也明顯軟化。

雖然9月的官方就業數據延遲發布，但現有證據表明，裁員和招募活動都保持在低檔。家庭對工作機會的感受以及企業對招募難度的看法都持續下降。鮑威爾坦言，在這樣一個「活力減弱、略顯疲軟」的勞動市場中，「就業的下行風險似乎在近幾個月有所上升」。聯準會正「非常、非常仔細」地關注近期美國大型企業的裁員情況，例如亞馬遜宣布裁員14,000人、UPS表示將裁撤48,000名員工等。

通膨高於目標，關稅是關鍵推升因素

通膨雖然已從2022年年中的高點顯著放緩，但相對於聯準會2%的長期目標而言，仍屬偏高。根據消費者物價指數(CPI)估計，截至9月為止的12個月內，總體個人消費支出(PCE)物價和核心PCE物價(排除波動較大的食物和能源類別)均成長2.8%。

鮑威爾指出，這些讀數比今年稍早時更高，主要是因為商品通膨有所回升。然而，服務業的通膨似乎仍在持續減緩。鮑威爾提到，關稅是推高特定商品類別價格、導致整體通膨上升的原因。他估計，關稅對核心PCE的推升作用約在0.5至0.6個百分點之間。如果排除關稅因素，核心PCE可能落在2.3%至2.4%之間，顯示其「距離2%目標並不遠」。

鮑威爾將關稅的影響視為「價格水準的一次性變動」，基本情況是影響將是相對短暫。然而，他也警告，如果這一次性的價格上漲演變成持續性的通膨問題，這將是一個需要評估與管理的風險。

政策前瞻：12月行動並非定局

鮑威爾指出，聯準會的貨幣政策行動，目的是在促進最大就業與物價穩定這兩個目標之間取得平衡。由於近幾個月來就業的下行風險有所增加，因此委員會判定現在採取「朝向更中性政策立場的另一個步驟」是適當的。

儘管採取降息行動，但鮑威爾強調，由於「通膨的風險傾向於上行，而就業的風險傾向於下行」，這是一個充滿挑戰的局面。在本次會議中，委員們對於12月應如何行動存在「強烈的分歧意見」。

鮑威爾明確表示，「12月再度調降政策利率，並非已成定局，距離定案還差得遠」。政策並非處於預設的軌道上。如果屆時經濟不確定性仍然非常高，則可能成為促使聯準會謹慎行事、暫緩行動的理由。

AI熱潮與科技投資：有獲利支撐，與網路泡沫不同

鮑威爾在記者會中特別提及科技業與人工智慧(AI)的發展。他認為，聯準會的利率政策不太可能影響科技業在AI基礎建設上的龐大支出，例如全美各地興建資料中心的投資。他判斷這些投資是基於長期的評估，因此對利率變化不會特別敏感。

此外，鮑威爾將當前的人工智慧(AI)熱潮與1990年代末的網路泡沫進行區分。他指出，這次的情況不同，因為那些市值極高的科技公司「實際上有獲利，還有其他實質業務支撐」。他強調，AI在資料中心和晶片領域的投資，已成為推動經濟成長的主要來源之一。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (October 29, 2025)

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting, and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

Implementation Note issued October 29, 2025 (October 29, 2025)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on October 29, 2025:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to lower the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90 percent, effective October 30, 2025.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective October 30, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 4.0 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.75 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in October and November that exceeds a cap of $5 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap. Beginning on December 1, roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities.
• Reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in October and November that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding. Beginning on December 1, reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point decrease in the primary credit rate to 4.0 percent, effective October 30, 2025. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

圖資來源：美國聯準會(Fed)