聯準會降息1碼至4%~4.25%，就業放緩成決策關鍵

根據美國聯準會(Fed)於2025年9月17日公布的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議聲明、主席鮑威爾(Jerome H. Powell)的記者會發言，以及經濟預測摘要(SEP)。美國聯準會(Fed)在白宮過去數月持續大舉施壓降息後，於9月17日決議調降指標聯邦資金利率目標區間1碼(0.25%)，調整至4%~4.25%。這是聯準會自去年12月18日以來首次降息。聯準會同時也決定持續減少其持有的證券部位。

聯準會主席鮑威爾在記者會上表示，他的同事們與他仍堅定不移地致力於達成「最大化就業」與「穩定物價」的雙重目標，以造福美國人民。鮑威爾指出，雖然失業率仍處於低點，但已略微上升，就業人數成長已經放緩，且就業惡化的下行風險有所增加。同時，通膨近期有所上升，且仍處於相對高的水準。鑑於風險平衡的轉變，以及就業下行風險的增加，聯準會認為在此次會議上採取進一步措施，朝向更「中性」的政策立場是合適的。

近期指標顯示，經濟活動成長速度已經放緩。今年上半年國內生產毛額(GDP)成長速度約為1.5%，低於去年的2.5%。這項成長趨緩主要反映消費支出的減速。相較之下，企業在設備和無形資產上的投資則從去年的水準有所成長。房地產市場的活動依然疲弱。根據聯準會的經濟預測摘要(SEP)，FOMC參與者預估2025年GDP將成長1.6%，2026年成長1.8%，這比6月的預測略為強勁，當時預估2025年為1.4%，2026年為1.6%。2027年和2028年的GDP成長預估中位數則分別為1.9%和1.8%，而長期平均成長率為1.8%。

在勞動市場方面，8月份失業率略微上升至4.3%，但與過去一年相比，仍維持在相對低的水準。過去三個月，薪資就業人數成長顯著放緩，月增率僅有29,000人。這次放緩很可能一部分反映勞動人口成長下降，原因是移民減少和勞動參與率降低。儘管如此，勞動需求已然軟化，近期創造就業的步伐似乎低於維持失業率不變所需的「損益平衡」水準。此外，薪資成長持續放緩，但仍高於通膨率。整體而言，勞動力供給與需求兩端的顯著放緩是不尋常的。在這樣一個較不活躍且相對疲軟的勞動市場中，就業惡化的下行風險顯然已經升高。鮑威爾主席在記者會中特別強調勞動市場轉弱是這次決策的關鍵因素，他表示：「我不能再說勞動市場非常穩健」。根據SEP的預測中位數，2025年底的失業率預計為4.5%，之後將會略微下降，2026年為4.4%，2027年為4.3%，2028年為4.2%，而長期失業率預估為4.2%。

通膨已從2022年中期的歷史高點顯著回落，但相對於聯準會2%的長期目標，仍處於相對高的水準。根據消費者物價指數(CPI)和其他數據估計，截至8月份的過去12個月，整體個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數成長2.7%。若排除波動較大的食品和能源類別，核心PCE物價指數則成長了2.9%。這些數據均高於今年稍早的水準，主要是因為商品通膨有所上升。相對地，服務業的通膨下降(disinflation)似乎仍在持續。由於關稅相關消息的影響，近期的通膨預期總體而言在今年有所上升，這反映在市場和調查的數據中。然而，在未來一年左右之後，大多數長期通膨預期指標仍與聯準會2%的通膨目標保持一致。SEP預測中位數顯示，2025年整體PCE通膨率為3.0%，2026年降至2.6%，2027年降至2.1%，2028年和長期目標均為2.0%。核心PCE通膨率預測中位數為2025年3.1%，2026年2.6%，2027年2.1%，2028年2.0%。

聯準會的貨幣政策行動受其雙重職責指導，目的在促進美國人民的「最大化就業」與「穩定物價」。鑑於就業下行風險增加，風險平衡已轉變，聯準會在此次會議上判斷採取進一步措施，邁向更中性的政策立場是恰當的。聯準會將根據即將公布的數據、不斷變化的展望以及風險平衡狀況，持續決定貨幣政策的適當立場。政策並非預設好的路線。

在SEP中，FOMC參與者提出他們對聯邦資金利率適當路徑的個人評估。預測中位數顯示，聯邦資金利率的適當水準在2025年底將為3.6%，2026年底為3.4%，2027年底為3.1%。這個路徑比6月的預測低了0.25個百分點。聯準會預期今年底前將再降息兩次，2026年再降息1碼。

本次會議公布的點陣圖，19位委員當中有10位(占比53%)，預期2025年底聯邦基金利率區間會落在3.5%~3.75%，與目前水準4%~4.25%，還有2碼(0.5%)的降息空間。19位委員當中有11位(占比58%)，預期2026年底聯邦基金利率區間會落在3.25%~3.55%，與目前水準4%~4.25%，還有3碼(0.5%)的降息空間，意味著明年(2026年)降息空間為1碼。

在本次貨幣政策行動的投票中，主席鮑威爾、副主席威廉斯(John C. Williams)等10位委員投下贊成票。然而，新任理事米倫(Stephen I. Miran)則投下反對票，他主張應降息0.5個百分點(2碼)。

政府政策的變化持續演變，其對經濟的影響仍不確定。較高的關稅已經開始推升某些商品類別的價格，但其對經濟活動和通膨的整體影響仍有待觀察。合理的基礎情境是，對通膨的影響將相對短暫，僅為一次性的物價水準轉變。但也可能通膨影響會更為持久，這是一個需要評估和管理的風險。聯準會的義務是確保一次性的物價水準上升不會演變成持續性的通膨問題。目前短期內的通膨風險傾向於上行，而就業風險則傾向於下行，這是一個充滿挑戰的局面。

聯準會也公布了其他貨幣政策的實施細節。自2025年9月18日起，支付準備金餘額的利率(IORB)將降至4.15%。隔夜附買回協議(ON RRP)的最低投標利率為4.25%，隔夜逆附買回協議(ON RRP)的報價利率為4%。初級信用利率(primary credit rate)也將同步下調0.25個百分點至4.25%。在縮減資產負債表(QT)方面，聯準會將繼續展期每月超過50億美元上限的美國公債本金，並將每月超過350億美元上限的機構債券和機構抵押擔保證券(MBS)本金再投資於美國公債，以大致符合流通中公債的到期結構。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (September 17, 2025)

Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting.

Implementation Note issued September 17, 2025 (September 17, 2025)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on September 17, 2025:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted to lower the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 4.15 percent, effective September 18, 2025.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective September 18, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 4 to 4-1/4 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 4.25 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 4 percent and with a per‑counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $5 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• Reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted to approve a 1/4 percentage point decrease in the primary credit rate to 4.25 percent, effective September 18, 2025. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

圖資來源：美國聯準會