歐元區利率連兩會凍漲，通膨展望持平，經濟成長預期上修

歐洲央行(ECB)於2025年9月11日召開會議，決議維持三大關鍵利率不變，這已是連續第2次會議利率維持在現行水準。此決策完全符合市場的普遍預期，顯示ECB對當前通膨壓力已獲得控制並將在中期穩定於2%的目標抱持堅定信心。現有三大指標利率水準，存款機制利率維持在2.00%、主要再融資操作利率維持在2.15%、邊際貸款機制利率則維持在2.40%。

在本次利率決議之前，ECB曾於截至6月的一年內累積調降基準存款利率8次，使之減半至2.00%。儘管歐元區經濟在美國關稅威脅、德國政府提高支出及法國政治動盪等多重因素影響下，仍呈現紮實成長。ECB管理委員會強調，將堅定不移地確保中期通膨穩定在2%的目標水準。同時，管理委員會將採取數據導向、逐次會議評估的貨幣政策立場，不會預先承諾任何特定的利率路徑。這也代表ECB總裁拉加德在記者會上，預計仍將刻意不透露未來利率走向的任何線索，以保持政策彈性。

ECB最新經濟預測顯示，2025年歐元區的整體通膨率(HICP)平均預計為2.1%，2026年為1.7%，2027年則為1.9%。相較於2025年6月的預測，2025年與2026年的HICP通膨展望均上修0.1個百分點，主要歸因於能源大宗商品價格上漲以及國際食品大宗商品過去漲價的滯後效應，這些因素抵消歐元升值的部分影響。然而，2027年的HICP通膨展望則下修0.1個百分點，主要是考量歐元升值的滯後效應將佔主導地位。此外，排除能源和食品的通膨率(HICPX)預期在2025年平均為2.4%，2026年為1.9%，2027年為1.8%。

預期2026年通膨率下降，主要反映非能源成分的逐步放緩，而能源通膨預計將保持波動，但會逐漸上升，部分原因是歐盟排放交易系統2(ETS2)將於2027年啟動。食品通膨預計初期仍將居高不下，反映國際食品大宗商品過去價格上漲的滯後效應，但在2026年和2027年將趨緩至略高於2%的水準。

在經濟成長方面，歐元區2025年的國內生產毛額(GDP)成長率預計為1.2%，較6月預期的0.9%上修0.3個百分點。這主要是由於優於預期的數據以及歷史數據修正帶來的結轉效應。然而，2026年的成長預測略微下修至1.0%，部分原因是歐元升值和外部需求疲軟所致。2027年的成長預測則維持在1.3%不變。

貿易關稅及其相關的不確定性導致2025年上半年經濟活動出現劇烈波動，特別是在愛爾蘭，呈現出活動提前的現象。預計下半年這些因素的解除將帶來進一步的波動，模糊歐元區經濟潛在動能的訊號。但若排除愛爾蘭數據波動的影響，歐元區其他地區的經濟成長更為穩定，預計下半年也將保持此態勢。

儘管新的美國-歐盟貿易協定意味著歐元區對美國出口的關稅更高，但這有助於降低貿易政策的不確定性。未來歐元區經濟成長預計將獲得多重因素支撐，包括實質薪資和就業的成長、主要在德國推動的基礎建設和國防新政府支出將提振歐元區國內需求。此外，貨幣政策決策帶來的較寬鬆融資條件，以及2027年外部需求的復甦，也將支持經濟成長展望。

Monetary policy decisions

11 September 2025

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Inflation is currently at around the 2% medium-term target and the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged.

The new ECB staff projections present a picture of inflation similar to that projected in June. They see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. For inflation excluding energy and food, they expect an average of 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. The economy is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, revised up from the 0.9% expected in June. The growth projection for 2026 is now slightly lower, at 1.0%, while the projection for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

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The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.

圖資來源：歐洲央行(ECB)