聯準會連4次會議升息3碼，今年共計升息3.75%

美國聯準會11月2日決策會議決議升息3碼(0.75%)，自11月3日起生效，連續4次會議升息3碼，聯邦基金利率調升後來到3.75%~4%，是2008年1月以來新高。2022年以來共計升息6次，累計升息幅度達到15碼(3.75%)。回顧前5次宣布升息時間與升息幅度依序為3月16日升息1碼、5月4日升息2碼、6月15日升息3碼、7月27日升息3碼、9月21日升息3碼。

聯準會在聲明中表示，近來的經濟指標表明支出與生產仍在適度成長，就業成長強勁，失業率維持在相對低點。但通膨率仍居高不下，反映疫情大流行、食品與能源價格上升，還有全面性供需失衡壓力。在決定未來升息目標區間速度時，將會考慮貨幣政策累積緊縮程度，影響經濟活動與通膨的時間，讓通膨率隨著時間回到2%。

會後記者會中聯準會主席鮑威爾表示，12月的會議中考慮放緩升息步伐(可能調升2碼)，但也表示聯準會尚未決定要這樣做，利率的最終水準可能會比上次(9月)會議時預估的還要高，當時預估2022年底聯邦基金利率中值在4.4%，2023年底會進一步上升到4.6%。

對於縮減資產負債表(縮表/QT)的行動計劃，規模維持每月公債600億美元，每月抵押貸款證券(MBS)350億元，如果有必要的話，可允許金額上略有偏差。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (November 02, 2022)

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued November 2, 2022 (November 02, 2022)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on November 2, 2022:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.9 percent, effective November 3, 2022.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective November 3, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
• Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 4 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
• Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.8 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
• Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 3/4 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate to 4 percent, effective November 3, 2022. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.