聯準會維持利率不變，經濟成長趨緩就業穩健

美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)於2025年7月30日的會議中，決議維持聯邦基金利率目標區間於4.25%至4.5%不變。此項決策目的在支持聯準會所肩負的雙重使命：追求最大就業與穩定物價。儘管經濟前景仍存在高度不確定性，聯準會主席鮑威爾表示，美國經濟目前仍處於穩健的狀態。

經濟活動方面，最新指標顯示，美國經濟活動的成長步伐有所放緩。今年上半年國內生產毛額(GDP)的年增率為1.2%，相較於去年的2.5%，但考量上半年整體數據有助於排除淨出口異常波動所帶來的季節性影響。成長放緩主要反映消費者支出的減速。然而，企業在設備和無形資產方面的投資則呈現加速成長。同時，房屋市場的活動仍舊疲弱。

在勞動市場方面，儘管經濟成長放緩，但勞動條件依然穩固。過去三個月的平均每月新增就業人口達到15萬人。失業率維持在4.1%的低檔，且在過去一年中保持在狹窄的區間內。薪資成長持續趨緩，但仍略高於通膨率。整體而言，廣泛的指標顯示勞動市場處於大致平衡的狀態，與最大就業水準相符。

通膨狀況，自2022年中期的歷史高點已顯著放緩，但仍略高於聯準會2%。若排除波動較大的食品與能源項目，核心PCE物價年增率則為2.7%。這些數據與年初相比變化不大，但價格變動的潛在構成已有所轉變：服務業通膨持續放緩，而關稅的增加正推高部分商品價格。受關稅消息影響，近期的通膨預期普遍上升，此現象反映在市場基礎及調查基礎的衡量指標中。然而，對於未來一年左右之後的長期通膨預期，多數衡量指標仍與聯準會2%的通膨目標保持一致。

聯準會表示，目前的貨幣政策立場使委員會能夠即時應對潛在的經濟發展。委員會將持續根據最新數據、不斷演變的經濟展望以及風險平衡來判斷適當的貨幣政策立場。對於新關稅的影響，聯準會指出其對部分商品價格的影響已逐漸顯現，但對整體經濟活動和通膨的影響仍有待觀察。基本情境判斷，關稅對通膨的影響可能是短暫的，僅反映物價水準的一次性變動。然而，通膨影響也可能更加持久，這是一個需要評估和管理的風險。

在貨幣政策實施細節方面，聯準會決議維持準備金餘額利率於4.4%。公開市場操作方面，聯準會將透過隔夜附買回操作(RP)與隔夜附賣回操作(RRP)來維持聯邦基金利率於目標區間內。資產負債表的縮減政策也將持續，委員會決定繼續減持美國公債、機構債務及機構抵押擔保證券(MBS)。具體而言，每月到期的公債本金超過50億美元的部分將進行再投資，而每月到期的機構債及MBS本金超過350億美元的部分，則將再投資於美國公債。

本次會議中，聯準會理事會以9票贊成、2票反對的結果，通過維持聯邦基金利率目標區間不變。投下反對票的委員為鮑曼(Michelle W. Bowman)和沃勒(Christopher J. Waller)，他們主張在本會議中將聯邦基金利率目標區間下調0.25個百分點。

聯準會委員會也持續進行其為期五年的貨幣政策框架審查，本次會議著重於修訂《長期目標與貨幣政策策略聲明》，預計將在夏季末完成任何修改。聯準會重申將盡一切努力實現最大就業和物價穩定目標，並理解其行動對全國各地的社區、家庭和企業的影響。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (July 30, 2025)

Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Jeffrey R. Schmid. Voting against this action were Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting. Absent and not voting was Adriana D. Kugler.

Implementation Note issued July 30, 2025 (July 30, 2025)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on July 30, 2025:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 4.4 percent, effective July 31, 2025.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective July 31, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 4-1/4 to 4‑1/2 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 4.5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 4.25 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $5 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• Reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 4.5 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.