歐洲央行暫停降息，聚焦貿易爭端與經濟展望

歐洲央行(ECB)於2025年7月24日的貨幣政策會議上，決議維持三項主要利率不變，分別為存款機制利率(Deposit Facility Rate)維持在2.0%、主要再融資利率(Main Refinancing Rate)為2.15%，以及邊際貸款利率(Marginal Lending Rate)為2.4%。此舉標誌著歐洲央行自今年1月以來連續四次的降息循環暫告一段落，終止了將主要存款利率從1月時的3.0%逐步下調至6月2.0%的寬鬆週期。回顧自2024年6月以來，歐洲央行已累計降息多達8次。

本次暫停降息的關鍵在於歐元區通膨率已成功回落至歐洲央行2.0%，較5月份的1.9%，小幅上升0.1%。商品通膨下滑至0.5%，而服務業通膨則微幅上升至3.3%，較5月份的3.2%。同時，前瞻性指標也預示薪資增長將進一步放緩。消費者短期通膨預期在5月和6月均呈現下降，而長期通膨預期則穩定在2.0%左右。

在經濟活動方面，歐元區經濟在第一季度的表現超出預期，部分歸因於企業為因應預期關稅上調而提前出口。此外，強勁的民間消費與投資也為成長提供支撐。近期調查顯示，製造業和服務業仍維持溫和擴張態勢。勞動市場表現穩健，5月份失業率為6.3%，接近歐元啟用以來的最低水準。強韌的勞動市場、實質所得增加以及穩健的民間資產負債表，持續支撐消費需求。寬鬆的融資條件也帶動了國內需求，包括房地產市場。

儘管經濟展現韌性，歐洲央行仍強調，當前環境仍充滿「極度不確定性」，尤其是全球貿易爭端帶來的風險。美國與歐盟的貿易談判至今尚未明朗，市場聚焦於美國總統川普設下的8月1日最後期限，擔憂若談判破局，歐盟商品恐面臨高達15%至30%的關稅，也可能因進口價格走低而帶來輸入性通縮的壓力。此外，地緣政治緊張(例如俄烏戰爭與中東衝突)也是一大不確定性來源。

在金融與貨幣條件方面，儘管自上次會議以來市場利率，特別是長期利率有所上升，但歐洲央行過去的降息舉措仍使企業借貸成本下降。5月份企業新貸平均利率降至3.7%，低於4月份的3.8%；市場發債成本也降至3.6%。企業貸款增長率在5月溫和放緩至2.5%，但企業債券發行則表現強勁，年增率達3.4%。第二季度對企業貸款的信用標準大致維持不變。新房貸平均利率在5月為3.3%，自年初以來變動不大。房貸增長率在5月微升至2.0%，市場需求強勁，但信用標準在第二季度略有收緊。

展望未來，歐洲央行重申將堅持「數據導向、逐次會議評估」的策略來決定適當的貨幣政策立場，並強調不會預先承諾特定的利率路徑。所有利率決策將基於對通膨展望、風險評估、經濟金融數據以及貨幣政策傳導強度等多重因素的綜合判斷。市場普遍預期，歐洲央行可能在9月進行今年最後一次25個基點的降息。

圖資來源：歐洲央行

Monetary policy decisions (24 July 2025)

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Inflation is currently at the 2% medium-term target. The incoming information is broadly in line with the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the inflation outlook. Domestic price pressures have continued to ease, with wages growing more slowly. Partly reflecting the Governing Council’s past interest rate cuts, the economy has so far proven resilient overall in a challenging global environment. At the same time, the environment remains exceptionally uncertain, especially because of trade disputes.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

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The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.