聯準會升息1碼，預估2022年全年可能升息7碼

美國聯準會3月16日決策會議決議升息1碼(0.25%)，聯邦基金利率調升後來到0.25%~0.5%，是2018年12月以來首度升息。

聯準會公布的聲明中表示，美國經濟活動與就業指標持續走強，就業強勁、失業率大幅下降，然而通貨膨脹居高不下，反映疫情大流行、能源價格高漲，與供需失衡。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭正在造成巨大的人力與經濟困難，對美國經濟存在高度不確定性。聯準會長期通膨目標訂在2%，貨幣政策的立場是將通膨率拉回到2%目標，之後的會議將會開始進行縮減資產負債表(縮表)，減持美國國債、抵押貸款證券(MBS)，最快可能在5月就進行。

對於2022年的升息預期，根據聯準會公布的點陣圖顯示，16位委員當中有12位認為2022年底前會升息7碼以上，相較2021年初的聯邦基金利率中值調升1.75%以上。聯準會公布的各項數據展望，2022年實質國內生產毛額(GDP)成長率為2.8%，相較上回公布的4%漲幅縮減；2022年失業率為3.5%，與上回公布的相同；2022年個人消費支出物價指數(PCE)年增率4.3%，相較上回公布的2.6%漲幅擴大；2022年核心個人消費支出物價指數(PCE)年增率4.1%，相較上回公布的2.7%漲幅擴大。2022年聯邦基金利率中值預估為1.875%，相較上回公布的0.875%多了1%，相較2022年初則是高了1.75%。

圖資來源：美國聯準會

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (March 16, 2022)

Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

Implementation Note issued March 16, 2022 (March 16, 2022)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on March 16, 2022:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 0.4 percent, effective March 17, 2022.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective March 17, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1/4 to 1/2 percent.
• Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 0.5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
• Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 0.3 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
• Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in agency MBS.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
• Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate to 0.5 percent, effective March 17, 2022. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.