聯準會第4次維持利率不變，明確表示目前不宜降息

美國聯準會1月31日召開2024年第一次決策會議，決議維持利率水準不變，聯邦基金利率區間仍然是5.25%~5.5%，連續4次決策會議沒有調整。

聯準會會後聲明中表示，最近的指標顯示經濟活動一直都在穩定擴張，自2023年初以來就業成長放緩，但仍然保持強勁，失業率也維持在相對較低水準，過去一年通膨有所放緩，但仍然處於高位。聯準會力求長期達到最大就業與通膨率回到2%，委員會判斷實現就業與通膨目標的風險正在趨向更好的平衡。目前經濟前景不明，委員會仍然高度關注通膨風險。

為了支持這項目標，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率目標區間維持在5.25%~5.5%，在考慮進行任何調整時，委員會將仔細評估經濟數據、持續變化的前景與風險平衡。預期在通膨率向2%邁進之前，不宜降低目標範圍。此外，委員會將會持續減少持有的國債、機構債，以及抵押貸款支持證券(MBS)，如同先前宣布的計畫所述。堅定致力將通膨率恢復到2%的目標。先前(2023年12月13日)會議針對減少購債計畫的說明如下：「國債方面先前購入的部分，每月上限600億美元到期回收的本金不再投入購債，抵押貸款證券(MBS)方面先前購入的部分，每月上限350億美元到期回收的本金不再投入購買，每月最多縮減950億美元」。

在評估適當的貨幣政策立場時，委員會將繼續監測新資訊對經濟前景的影響。如果出現可能阻礙委員會目標實現的風險，委員會將準備酌情調整貨幣政策立場。委員會的評估將考慮廣泛的信息，包括勞動力市場狀況、通膨壓力和通膨預期以及金融和國際發展的數據。

聯準會主席鮑威爾在會後記者會表示，依據今天的會議可以告訴大家，我認為3月的開會時不太容易有足夠的信心，意味要調降利率(降息)的機會不高。對於利率水準看法，鮑威爾表示，政策利率大致已經達到緊縮周期的頂點，若經濟發展大致符合預期，今年可能適時開始減少政策約束。若情況適合，準備將聯邦基金利率目標區間維持久一點。

圖資來源：聯準會

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (January 31, 2024)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.