歐洲央行再降息1碼，通膨趨穩政策轉向

歐洲央行(ECB)於2025年6月5日發布的「貨幣政策決策」，決議調降3項主要的歐洲央行利率0.25%(1碼)。這項決定符合市場普遍預期，也是歐洲央行連續第8次降息。本次降息後，主要利率將自2025年6月11日起生效。其中，隔夜存款利率為2.00%，主要再融資利率(MRO)為2.15%，而隔夜貸款利率(MLF)為2.40%。

本波降息循環自2024年6月6日開始，針對指標隔夜存款利率，6月6日宣布調降1碼，9月12日調降1碼，10月17日調降1碼，12月12日調降1碼，2025年1月30日調降1碼，3月6日調降1碼，4月17日調降1碼，6月5日再度調降1碼，共計調降8次，累計調降2.00%(8碼)。

歐洲央行表示，本次降息決策是基於其對通膨前景的最新評估、潛在通膨的動態變化以及貨幣政策傳導力道的強弱。目前整體通膨率約在管理委員會2%的中期目標附近。

歐元區整體通膨率預期在2025年平均為2.0%，2026年為1.6%，2027年則為2.0%。相較於3月的預測，2025年和2026年的通膨預測均下修0.3%，主要反映能源價格假設較低以及歐元走強。剔除能源和食品的核心通膨部分，預期2025年平均為2.4%，2026年和2027年均為1.9%，與3月的預測大致保持不變。多數衡量潛在通膨的指標顯示，通膨將持續穩定在管理委員會2%的中期目標附近。薪資成長雖然仍處於高位，但正明顯放緩，且利潤正在部分緩衝其對通膨的衝擊。

在經濟成長方面，預期2025年實質GDP成長率平均為0.9%，2026年為1.1%，2027年為1.3%。2025年的成長預測維持不變，反映第一季表現優於預期，但今年剩餘時間的前景較為疲弱。儘管貿易政策的不確定性預計將壓抑企業投資及出口，尤其是在短期內，但各國政府增加國防和基礎建設投資將在中期內對經濟成長提供愈來愈強的支持。較高的實質所得和穩健的勞動市場將使家庭增加支出。這與更有利的融資條件一道，應能提高經濟對全球衝擊的韌性。

在極高不確定性的情況下，歐洲央行管理委員會將採取數據依賴和逐次會議評估的方式來決定適當的貨幣政策立場。未來的利率決策將基於對通膨前景的評估，並考量最新的經濟和金融數據、潛在通膨的動態變化以及貨幣政策傳導的力道。管理委員會不預先承諾特定的利率路徑。

此外，歐洲央行資產購買計畫(APP)和疫情緊急購買計畫(PEPP)的投資組合正在以衡量且可預測的速度下降。傳輸保護工具(TPI)仍可運用，以應對可能對貨幣政策傳導構成嚴重威脅的不必要、無序的市場動態。本次降息後，歐美之間的利率差距擴大到超過2%。貨幣市場目前預期，今年內歐洲央行可能將再降息1碼。

Monetary policy decisions (5 June 2025)

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance – is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

Inflation is currently at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target. In the baseline of the new Eurosystem staff projections, headline inflation is set to average 2.0% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. The downward revisions compared with the March projections, by 0.3 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026, mainly reflect lower assumptions for energy prices and a stronger euro. Staff expect inflation excluding energy and food to average 2.4% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 and 2027, broadly unchanged since March.

Staff see real GDP growth averaging 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. The unrevised growth projection for 2025 reflects a stronger than expected first quarter combined with weaker prospects for the remainder of the year. While the uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to weigh on business investment and exports, especially in the short term, rising government investment in defence and infrastructure will increasingly support growth over the medium term. Higher real incomes and a robust labour market will allow households to spend more. Together with more favourable financing conditions, this should make the economy more resilient to global shocks.

In the context of high uncertainty, staff also assessed some of the mechanisms by which different trade policies could affect growth and inflation under some alternative illustrative scenarios. These scenarios will be published with the staff projections on the ECB’s website. Under this scenario analysis, a further escalation of trade tensions over the coming months would result in growth and inflation being below the baseline projections. By contrast, if trade tensions were resolved with a benign outcome, growth and, to a lesser extent, inflation would be higher than in the baseline projections.

Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis. Wage growth is still elevated but continues to moderate visibly, and profits are partially buffering its impact on inflation. The concerns that increased uncertainty and a volatile market response to the trade tensions in April would have a tightening impact on financing conditions have eased.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. The Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively, with effect from 11 June 2025.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.