歐洲央行2024年第一次決策會議，各項貨幣政策維持不變

歐洲央行(ECB)於1月25日進行2024年第一次決策會議，決議維持利率水準不變，連續2次會議沒有變動利率，歐元區三大主要利率分別是隔夜存款利率為4%，主要再融資利率(MRO)為4.5%、隔夜貸款利率(MLF)為4.75%，仍然是1999年歐元問世之後23年多來新高。

回顧ECB自2022年7月21日升息2碼開始啟動本波升息循環，至今共計升息10次，宣布時間依序為2022年7月21日升息2碼，2022年9月5日升息3碼，2022年10月27日升息3碼，2022年12月15日升息2碼，2023年2月2日升息2碼，2023年3月16日升息2碼，2023年5月4日升息1碼，2023年6月15日升息1碼，2023年7月27日升息1碼，以及2023年9月14日升息1碼，2022年共計升息4次，累計升幅為10碼(2.5%)，2023年升息6次，升幅為8碼(2%)，合計升幅18碼(4.5%)。

ECB在聲明中表示，委員會決心確保通膨率及時回到2%的中期目標，根據目前情況評估關鍵利率水準如果維持足夠長的時間，將可以為這項目標作出重大貢獻，意味不一定會持續往上升息，但會維持相對較高利率一段時間。

對於量化寬鬆(QE)的資產購買計畫(APP)，在歐元體系內先前購入的有價證券到期本金不再繼續投資，APP的資產組合正在以可衡量、可預測的速度下降。針對疫情的緊急購買計畫(PEPP)，計畫在2024上半年將先前購入的有價證券，到期本金全數進行再投資，2024下半年預計每月將PEPP投資組合減少75億歐元，2024年底之後將所有到期本金停止再投資。

Monetary policy decisions (25 January 2024)

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information has broadly confirmed its previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. Aside from an energy-related upward base effect on headline inflation, the declining trend in underlying inflation has continued, and the past interest rate increases keep being transmitted forcefully into financing conditions. Tight financing conditions are dampening demand, and this is helping to push down inflation.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. Based on its current assessment, the Governing Council considers that the key ECB interest rates are at levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to this goal. The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that its policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.

The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP portfolio is declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

The Governing Council intends to continue to reinvest, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP during the first half of 2024. Over the second half of the year, it intends to reduce the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average. The Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.

The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

Refinancing operations

As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations and their ongoing repayment are contributing to its monetary policy stance.