ECB再降息至2.25%，本波累計調降達7碼

歐洲央行(ECB)於4月17日決議調降三項關鍵利率各1碼(0.25%)，調降後隔夜存款利率為2.25%，主要再融資利率(MRO)為2.40%，而隔夜貸款利率(MLF)為2.65%。這些調整將於2025年4月23日起生效。

本波降息循環自2024年6月6日開始，針對指標隔夜存款利率，6月6日宣布調降1碼，9月12日調降1碼，10月17日調降1碼，12月12日調降1碼，2025年1月30日調降1碼，3月6日調降1碼，4月17日再度調降1碼，共計調降7次，累計調降1.75%(7碼)。

歐洲央行指出，目前的通貨緊縮進程正按計劃進行。如同工作人員預期，3月份的整體通膨率與核心通膨率均持續下滑。值得注意的是，服務業通膨近幾個月也顯著趨緩。多數潛在通膨指標顯示，通膨將在可持續的基礎上回落至管理委員會設定的2%中期目標附近。此外，工資成長正在趨緩，而企業利潤也在一定程度上緩衝了工資上漲對通膨的影響。

儘管如此，歐元區經濟展現出一定的應對全球衝擊的能力，但由於貿易緊張局勢升溫，經濟成長前景已有所惡化。不確定性的增加可能削弱家庭和企業的信心，而市場對貿易緊張局勢的負面和不穩定反應，可能對融資條件產生緊縮效應，進一步對歐元區的經濟前景造成壓力。

管理委員會強調，其堅定致力於確保通膨在中期內可持續地穩定在2%的目標。在當前極度不確定的環境下，委員會將採取數據導向且逐次會議評估的方式，來決定適當的貨幣政策立場。特別是，管理委員會的利率決策將基於其對通膨前景的評估，考量最新的經濟和金融數據、潛在通膨的動態以及貨幣政策傳導的強度。委員會並未預先承諾任何特定的利率路徑。

另一方面，資產購買計畫(APP)和疫情緊急購買計畫(PEPP)的投資組合正以有節奏且可預測的速度縮減，因為歐洲央行體系不再將到期證券的本金進行再投資。

Monetary policy decisions (17 April 2025)

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance – is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The disinflation process is well on track. Inflation has continued to develop as staff expected, with both headline and core inflation declining in March. Services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis. Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions. Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65% respectively, with effect from 23 April 2025.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.