美國聯準會確定升息2碼，2023年聯邦基金利率可能會升破5%

美國聯準會12月15日公布2022年最後一次決策會議決議，全體參與的委員一致同意，確定升息2碼(0.5%)，自12月15日起生效，聯邦基金利率調升後來到4.25%~4.5%，是自金融海嘯前的2007年12月之後近15年來新高。

2022年以來共計升息7次，累計升息幅度達17碼(4.25%)，回顧前6次宣布升息的時間與升息幅度，依序為3月16日升息1碼、5月4日升息2碼、6月15日升息3碼、7月27日升息3碼、9月21日升息3碼、11月2日升息3碼。

聯準會在會後聲明公告中表示，最近的經濟指標表明支出與生產均在溫和成長中，近幾個月就業也強勁增長，失業率保持在相對低點。但通膨仍然居高不下，反映疫情大流行、食品與能源價格高漲，以及供需失衡的價格壓力。烏俄戰爭也正在加劇通膨上升壓力，並對全球經濟成長造成影響，聯準會高度關注通膨風險。聯準會預估聯邦基金利率區間持續上調是適當的，以便將通膨率隨時間推移到2%的物價上漲目標值。

關於縮減資產負債表(縮表/QT)的部分，聯準會會持續減持美國公債、機構債務，與抵押貸款證券(MBS)，與5月發布(6月1日開始執行)的縮減計畫一樣，堅定的致力將通膨率回復到2%的目標值。

這次會議後公布的點陣圖，19位委員當中，有17位認為2023年聯邦利率區間會在5%~5.25%之上，與這次調整後的4.25%~4.5%區間相較，2023年底前還有至少升息3碼(0.75%)的可能；19位委員當中，還是有7位認為2023年聯邦利率區間會在5.25%~5.5%之上，與這次調整後的4.25%~4.5%區間相較，2023年底前還有至少升息4碼(1%)的可能。再觀察2024年，19位委員當中有12位(超過半數)認為聯邦利率區間會在4%~4.25%以下，低於這次調升後的水準，意謂多數委員評估2024年有機會降息。

這次會議公布的經濟展望，觀察各項主要經濟數據2023年的中值，實質國內生產毛額(GDP)成長率0.5%，相較9月的預估值1.2%，漲幅縮減0.7%；失業率4.6%，相較9月的預估值4.4%，增加0.2%；個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數成長率3.1%，相較9月的預估值2.8%，上升0.3%；核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數成長率3.5%，相較9月的預估值3.1%，上升0.4%。2023年不含能源與食物後的核心PCE物價指數年增率，預估漲幅超過整體PCE物價指數年增率，反映2022年初因供應鏈瓶頸與烏俄戰爭引發的能源、食物價格大幅上升，2023年因高基期效應漲幅預期將明顯縮減。相對的自2022年底因各國陸續解除疫情封鎖，報復性旅遊推動的服務業快速回溫，需求大幅提升，相對供給因缺工等因素成長有限，服務業價格大幅攀升，住房成本也反映通膨升溫，將會是2023年支撐物價處於相對高檔的主因。

預估2023年聯邦基金利率中值為5.1%，相較9月的預估值4.6%，高0.5%(2碼)，預估2024年聯邦基金利率中值為4.1%，相較9月的預估值3.9%，低0.2%，與2023年的中值預估值相較，低1%，顯示2024年有機會明顯降息。

圖資來源：聯準會

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (December 14, 2022)

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are contributing to upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued December 14, 2022 (December 14, 2022)

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on December 14, 2022:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 4.4 percent, effective December 15, 2022.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective December 15, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.
• Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 4.5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
• Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 4.3 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
• Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/2 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate to 4.5 percent, effective December 15, 2022. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.