歐洲央行2025年第2次降息，本波循環第6次降息

歐洲央行(ECB)在2025年3月6日的會議上，決定將歐元區三項主要ECB利率調降1碼(0.25%)。這項決議是基於對通膨前景、潛在通膨動態以及貨幣政策傳導力度的最新評估。調降後隔夜存款利率調降後成為2.5%，主要再融資利率(MRO)調降後成為2.65%，隔夜貸款利率(MLF)調降後成為2.90%，自2025年3月12日起實施。

本波降息循環自2024年6月6日開始，針對指標隔夜存款利率，6月6日宣布調降1碼，9月12日宣布調降1碼，10月17日宣布調降1碼，12月12日宣布調降1碼，2025年1月30日宣布調降1碼，2025年3月6日宣布調降1碼，共計調降6次，累計調降1.5%(6碼)。

歐洲央行在聲明中表示，降低存款機制利率(隔夜存款利率)的決定是基於管理委員會對通膨前景、潛在通膨動態以及貨幣政策傳遞強度的最新評估。整體通膨的發展大致符合工作人員的預期，最新的預測與先前的通膨展望密切一致。預期整體通膨率在2025年平均為2.3%，2026年為1.9%，2027年為2.0%。2025年整體通膨率的上調反映能源價格動能的增強。不包括能源和食品的通膨率，預計在2025年平均為2.2%，2026年為2.0%，2027年為1.9%。大多數潛在通膨指標顯示，通膨將在可持續的基礎上穩定在管理委員會2%的中期目標附近。國內通膨仍然很高，主要是因為工資和某些行業的價格仍在以相當大的延遲來調整過去的通膨飆升。但工資增長正如預期的那樣放緩，利潤正在部分緩衝對通膨的影響。

由於降息使得企業和家庭的新借款成本降低，貸款增長正在回升，貨幣政策的限制性正在顯著減弱。同時過去的升息仍在傳遞至信貸存量，這對融資條件的放鬆構成阻力，總體而言，貸款仍然低迷。

經濟面臨持續的挑戰，本次會議再次下調經濟成長預測，2025年為0.9%，2026年為1.2%，2027年為1.3%。2025年和2026年的向下修正反映出口的減少和投資的持續疲軟，部分原因是高貿易政策的不確定性以及更廣泛的政策不確定性。

不斷上升的實際收入和過去升息的影響逐漸消退仍然是支撐需求預期回升的關鍵驅動因素。管理委員會決心確保通膨在中期內可持續地穩定在其2%的目標。尤其是在當前不確定性上升的情況下，管理委員會將採取數據依賴和逐次會議的方式來決定適當的貨幣政策立場。管理委員會的利率決定將基於其對考慮到即將發布的經濟和金融數據的通膨前景、潛在通膨動態以及貨幣政策傳遞強度的評估。管理委員會沒有預先承諾特定的利率路徑。

資產購買計劃(APP)和疫情緊急購買計劃(PEPP)，由於歐元體系不再將到期證券的本金付款進行再投資APP和PEPP的投資組合正在以有節奏且可預測的速度下降。

Monetary policy decisions (6 March 2025)

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance – is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The disinflation process is well on track. Inflation has continued to develop broadly as staff expected, and the latest projections closely align with the previous inflation outlook. Staff now see headline inflation averaging 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. The upward revision in headline inflation for 2025 reflects stronger energy price dynamics. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.2% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.

Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis. Domestic inflation remains high, mostly because wages and prices in certain sectors are still adjusting to the past inflation surge with a substantial delay. But wage growth is moderating as expected, and profits are partially buffering the impact on inflation.

Monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive, as the interest rate cuts are making new borrowing less expensive for firms and households and loan growth is picking up. At the same time, a headwind to the easing of financing conditions comes from past interest rate hikes still transmitting to the stock of credit, and lending remains subdued overall. The economy faces continued challenges and staff have again marked down their growth projections – to 0.9% for 2025, 1.2% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027. The downward revisions for 2025 and 2026 reflect lower exports and ongoing weakness in investment, in part originating from high trade policy uncertainty as well as broader policy uncertainty. Rising real incomes and the gradually fading effects of past rate hikes remain the key drivers underpinning the expected pick-up in demand over time.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of rising uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively, with effect from 12 March 2025.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

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The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.

圖資來源：歐洲央行