歐洲央行升息1碼，本波升息循環第9次升息

歐洲央行(ECB)於7月27日決策會議後決議升息1碼(0.25%)，調升後歐元區三大主要利率分別是隔夜存款利率為3.75%，主要再融資利率(MRO)為4.25%、隔夜貸款利率(MLF)為4.5%，自2023年8月2日起實施，指標利率上升到自2000年10月之後22年多來新高。

ECB自2022年7月21日升息2碼開始啟動本波升息循環，至今共計升息9次，宣布時間依序為2022年7月21日升息2碼，2022年9月5日升息3碼，2022年10月27日升息3碼，2022年12月15日升息2碼，2023年2月2日升息2碼，2023年3月16日升息2碼，2023年5月4日升息1碼，2023年6月15日升息1碼，以及2023年7月27日升息1碼，2022年共計升息4次，累計升幅為10碼(2.5%)，2023年升息5次，升幅為7碼(1.75%)，合計升幅17碼(4.25%)。

ECB在聲明中表示通膨率已經下降，但預期還會有一段很長的時間會維持在相對較高的水準，委員會決心確保通膨率及時回到2%的中期目標，因此決議升息1碼。這次升息反映委員會對通膨前景、潛在通膨動態與貨幣政策傳導力道的評估。預期通膨率在2023年底之前會進一步下降，不過還會高於預期目標一段時間。

關於先前執行量化寬鬆(QE)的資產購買計畫(APP)，所有先前購入的證券到期本金不再進行再投資(縮減資產負債表/縮表/QT)，在上次的決策會議就已經決議自2023年7月起不再進行再投資，藉此加速APP投資組合可衡量與可預期的速度下降。至於因疫情推出的緊急購買計畫(PEPP)，維持至少在2024年底之前，該計畫購買的有價證券到期本金都會進行再投資。

Monetary policy decisions (27 July 2023)

Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long. The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It therefore today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.

The rate increase today reflects the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The developments since the last meeting support the expectation that inflation will drop further over the remainder of the year but will stay above target for an extended period. While some measures show signs of easing, underlying inflation remains high overall. The past rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully: financing conditions have tightened again and are increasingly dampening demand, which is an important factor in bringing inflation back to target.

The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. In particular, its interest rate decisions will continue to be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The Governing Council also decided to set the remuneration of minimum reserves at 0%. This decision will preserve the effectiveness of monetary policy by maintaining the current degree of control over the monetary policy stance and ensuring the full pass-through of the interest rate decisions to money markets. At the same time, it will improve the efficiency of monetary policy by reducing the overall amount of interest that needs to be paid on reserves in order to implement the appropriate stance.

The details of the change to the remuneration of minimum reserves are provided in a separate press release to be published at 15:45 CET.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively, with effect from 2 August 2023.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP portfolio is declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

As concerns the PEPP, the Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

Refinancing operations

As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations and their ongoing repayment are contributing to its monetary policy stance.