歐洲央行2025年首度降息，本波循環第5次降息

歐洲央行(ECB)在2025年1月30日的會議上，決定將歐元區三項主要ECB利率調降1碼(0.25%)。這項決議是基於對通膨前景、潛在通膨動態以及貨幣政策傳導力度的最新評估。調降後隔夜存款利率調降後成為2.75%，主要再融資利率(MRO)調降後成為2.90%，隔夜貸款利率(MLF)調降後成為3.15%，自2025年2月5日起實施。

本波降息循環自2024年6月6日開始，針對指標隔夜存款利率，6月6日宣布調降1碼，9月12日宣布調降1碼，10月17日宣布調降1碼，12月12日宣布調降1碼，2025年1月30日宣布調降1碼，共計調降5次，累計調降1.25%(5碼)。

歐洲央行聲明中表示，歐元區的通膨持續發展，大致符合預期。預計將在今年內回到管理委員會的2%中期目標。大多數潛在通膨指標顯示，通膨將持續穩定在目標附近。國內通膨仍然偏高，主要是因為工資和某些行業的價格仍在調整過去的通膨。工資成長正在如預期放緩，而利潤正在部分緩衝對通膨的影響。經濟在2024年第四季度停滯不前，預計短期內仍將疲軟。製造業持續萎縮，而服務業活動正在擴張。消費者信心仍然脆弱，但勞動市場仍然穩健。較低的借貸成本應可隨著時間推移刺激消費和投資，全球需求上升應有助於出口支持經濟復甦。

歐洲央行決心確保通膨在中期內穩定在2%的目標，將採取數據導向和逐次會議 的方式來決定適當的貨幣政策立場。利率決議將基於對通膨前景、潛在通膨動態和貨幣政策傳導力度的評估，不預先承諾任何特定的利率路徑。

資產購買計畫(APP)和疫情緊急購買計畫(PEPP)的投資組合正以穩健且可預測的速度下降，因為歐元系統不再將到期證券的本金再投資。

歐洲中央銀行(ECB)在新聞發布會中，針對經濟狀況表達了以下看法。根據歐盟統計局的初步預估，歐元區經濟在第四季度停滯不前，預計短期內仍將保持疲軟。調查顯示，製造業持續萎縮，而服務業活動正在擴張。消費者信心仍然脆弱，家庭尚未從實際收入的增加中獲得足夠的鼓勵來大幅增加支出。儘管如此，經濟復甦的條件依然存在。勞動市場雖有所趨緩，但仍保持穩健，失業率在12月份維持在6.3%的低位。穩健的就業市場和較高的收入應能加強消費者信心並允許支出增加。隨著時間的推移，更實惠的信貸也應能刺激消費和投資。只要貿易緊張局勢不升級，隨著全球需求上升，出口應能支持經濟復甦。

財政和結構性政策應使經濟更具生產力、競爭力和韌性。

2024年12月份的通膨率從11月份的2.2%上升至2.4%。如同前兩個月，這次的上升在預料之中，主要反映了過去能源價格大幅下跌所造成的影響。能源價格在連續四次下跌後，在12月份出現月度成長，導致年度能源價格略微上漲。食品價格通膨小幅降至2.6%，商品通膨降至0.5%，而服務業通膨則小幅上升至4.0%。大多數潛在通膨指標的發展與通膨持續回到中期目標一致。國內通膨(與服務業通膨密切相關)仍然偏高，因為工資和某些服務價格仍在調整過去的通膨。同時，最近的信號顯示，工資壓力持續緩和，利潤正發揮緩衝作用。歐洲央行預計通膨在短期內將在其目前水準附近波動，然後穩定在中期2%的目標附近。勞動成本壓力的減輕以及過去貨幣政策緊縮對消費者價格的持續影響應有助於實現這一目標。雖然市場對通膨補償的指標已大致逆轉秋季觀察到的跌幅，但大多數衡量長期通膨預期的指標仍維持在2%左右。

經濟成長的風險仍然偏向下行，全球貿易摩擦加劇可能會通過抑制出口和削弱全球經濟來打擊歐元區的經濟成長。消費者信心下降可能會阻止消費和投資以預期的速度復甦。地緣政治風險(例如俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭和中東衝突)可能會擾亂能源供應並進一步打擊全球貿易。如果貨幣政策緊縮的滯後效應持續時間比預期長，經濟成長也可能降低。如果較為寬鬆的融資條件和通膨下降允許國內消費和投資更快反彈，經濟成長可能會更高。通膨方面，如果工資或利潤的增幅超出預期，通膨可能會更高。通膨的上行風險也來自於地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，這可能在短期內推高能源價格和運費，並擾亂全球貿易。此外，極端天氣事件和更廣泛的氣候危機可能會導致食品價格上漲幅度超出預期。相反地，如果低迷的消費者信心和對地緣政治事件的擔憂阻止消費和投資以預期的速度復甦，如果貨幣政策對需求的抑制作用超出預期，或者如果世界其他地區的經濟環境意外惡化，通膨可能會出現意外的下行。全球貿易摩擦加劇將使歐元區的通膨前景更加不確定。

Monetary policy decisions (30 January 2025)

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance – is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The disinflation process is well on track. Inflation has continued to develop broadly in line with the staff projections and is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis. Domestic inflation remains high, mostly because wages and prices in certain sectors are still adjusting to the past inflation surge with a substantial delay. But wage growth is moderating as expected, and profits are partially buffering the impact on inflation.

The Governing Council’s recent interest rate cuts are gradually making new borrowing less expensive for firms and households. At the same time, financing conditions continue to be tight, also because monetary policy remains restrictive and past interest rate hikes are still transmitting to the stock of credit, with some maturing loans being rolled over at higher rates. The economy is still facing headwinds but rising real incomes and the gradually fading effects of restrictive monetary policy should support a pick-up in demand over time.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 2.75%, 2.90% and 3.15% respectively, with effect from 5 February 2025.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

Refinancing operations

On 18 December 2024 banks repaid the remaining amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, thus concluding this part of the balance sheet normalisation process.

圖資來源：歐洲央行