聯準會1/29利率決議：維持利率不變，持續關注通膨

美國聯準會2025年首場決策會議(2025年1月29日)，決定維持目前的貨幣政策立場。指標聯邦基金利率目標範圍維持在4.25%至4.5%。聯準會除了維持利率不變外，也將持續縮減資產負債表。這項措施是為了進一步抑制通膨，聯準會將會減少持有的美國國債、機構債務和機構抵押貸款支持證券，並將到期本金再投資於美國國債。這個過程設有每月上限，超過上限的部分會被展期或贖回。回顧聯準會自2024年9月起連續3次會議降息，共計調降4碼(1%)，宣布時間依序為2024年9月19日降息2碼、2024年11月7日降息1碼、2024年12月18日降息1碼。

聯準會於2025年1月29日發布的聲明指出，近期指標顯示經濟活動持續穩健擴張。失業率在近幾個月保持在低水平，勞動市場狀況依然穩固。通貨膨脹仍然有些偏高。

委員會的目標是實現最大的就業率，並在長期內將通膨率維持在2%。委員會認為，實現就業和通膨目標的風險大致平衡(雙重使命)。經濟前景不明朗，委員會將密切關注雙重使命的風險。

為支持其目標，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率的目標範圍維持在4.25%至4.5%。在考慮調整聯邦基金利率目標範圍的幅度與時間時，委員會將仔細評估新進數據、不斷變化的前景以及風險平衡。

委員會將繼續減少其持有的美國國債、機構債務和機構抵押貸款支持證券。委員會堅定致力於支持最大就業率，並使通膨率回到2%的目標。

委員會將持續監測新進資訊對經濟前景的影響，以評估適當的貨幣政策立場。如果出現可能阻礙委員會達成目標的風險，委員會將準備適時調整貨幣政策立場。委員會的評估將考量廣泛資訊，包括勞動市場狀況、通膨壓力與通膨預期，以及金融與國際情勢發展。

本次貨幣政策實施決策(2025/1/29)：

準備金餘額利率：聯準會理事會一致投票決定，維持準備金餘額的利率在4.4%不變，自2025年1月30日起生效。

公開市場操作：聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)指示紐約聯邦儲備銀行的公開市場交易部門執行以下操作，直到另行通知：

進行必要的公開市場操作，將聯邦基金利率維持在4.25%至4.5%的目標範圍內。

進行常備隔夜附買回協議操作，最低投標利率為4.5%，總操作限額為5,000億美元。

進行常備隔夜反向附買回協議操作，報價利率為4.25%，每個交易對手的每日限額為1,600億美元。

對於每月到期的美國國債，將超過每月250億美元上限的本金支付金額在拍賣時展期。將到期的美國國債息票證券贖回至每月上限，並在息票本金支付少於每月上限時贖回美國國庫券。

將每月收到的機構債務和機構抵押貸款支持證券(MBS)的本金支付金額，超過每月350億美元上限的部分，再投資於美國國債，以大致匹配美國國債的到期結構。

如果出於操作上的原因，允許對規定的再投資金額進行適度調整。

進行美元展期和息票互換交易，以利於聯準會機構抵押貸款支持證券交易的結算。

主要信貸利率：聯準會理事會一致投票批准將主要信貸利率設定在現有水平4.5%。

這些是根據您提供的來源所整理的聯準會實施說明重點。這些資訊將根據聯邦公開市場委員會或理事會的決策進行更新。更多關於公開市場操作和再投資的信息可以在紐約聯邦儲備銀行的網站上找到。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (January 29, 2025)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued January 29, 2025

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on January 29, 2025:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 4.4 percent, effective January 30, 2025.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective January 30, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 4-1/4 to 4‑1/2 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 4.5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 4.25 percent and with a per‑counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• Reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
• Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 4.5 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.