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  • 美國聯準會決議聯邦基金利率區間仍維持0%~0.25%,量化寬鬆(QE)購債計畫與去年12月會議決議相同,在今年3月退場
  • 聯準會主席鮑威爾會後記者會表示,目前美國勞動市場接近充分就業狀態,若條件許可委員會考慮3月的會議就開始升息
  • 預計在升息後再開始縮減資產負債表,計畫從持有的證券到期本金收到後不再投入市場為主,沒有提到要直接出售持有的有價證券

美國聯準會1月26日決策會議,聯邦基金利率區間仍維持0%~0.25%,量化寬鬆(QE)購債計畫與去年12月會議決議相同,在今年(2022年)3月退場。

聯準會公告的聲明中表示,美國經濟活動與就業指標近來走強,受肺炎大流行最嚴重的部門就業已有改善,但與肺炎大流行和經濟重起開放相關的供需失衡,持續引發通膨升溫,整體金融環境仍然寬鬆,部分支持經濟的寬鬆貨幣政策與信貸流向美國家庭與企業。因通膨率遠高於2%且勞動市場強勁,委員會預計很快就會上調聯邦基金利率目標區間(升息)。

聯準會也公告縮減資產負債表(縮表)規模原則,公告中表示調整聯邦基金利率區間是調整貨幣政策立場的主要手段,聯準會將會確定縮減資產負債表規模與時機,以促進最大就業與物價穩定目標。委員會預計在提高聯邦基金利率目標(升息)後,再開始縮減資產負債表。委員會計畫從公開市場帳戶(SOMA)中持有的證券到期本金收到後不再投入市場,減少聯準會有價證券的持有量,沒有提到要直接出售持有的有價證券。

聯準會主席鮑威爾會後記者會表示,目前美國勞動市場接近充分就業狀態,若條件許可委員會考慮3月的會議就開始升息,同時強調決策官員還沒做出任何決定,因為需要保持靈活,才可以對所有可能的結果做出及時因應。

圖資來源:美國聯準會


Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (January 26, 2022)

The Federal Open Market Committee agreed that it is appropriate at this time to provide information regarding its planned approach for significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. All participants agreed on the following elements:

  • The Committee views changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy.
  • The Committee will determine the timing and pace of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet so as to promote its maximum employment and price stability goals. The Committee expects that reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will commence after the process of increasing the target range for the federal funds rate has begun.
  • The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA).
  • Over time, the Committee intends to maintain securities holdings in amounts needed to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively in its ample reserves regime.
  • In the longer run, the Committee intends to hold primarily Treasury securities in the SOMA, thereby minimizing the effect of Federal Reserve holdings on the allocation of credit across sectors of the economy.
  • The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details of its approach to reducing the size of the balance sheet in light of economic and financial developments.

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (January 26, 2022)

Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months but are being affected by the recent sharp rise in COVID-19 cases. Job gains have been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain, including from new variants of the virus.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee decided to continue to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March. Beginning in February, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $20 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $10 billion per month. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

Implementation Note issued January 26, 2022 (January 26, 2022)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on January 26, 2022:

  • The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 0.15 percent, effective January 27, 2022.
  • As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective January 27, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

  • Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 0 to 1/4 percent.
  • Complete the increase in System Open Market Account (SOMA) holdings of Treasury securities by $40 billion and of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by $20 billion, as indicated in the monthly purchase plans released in mid-January.
  • Increase the SOMA holdings of Treasury securities by $20 billion and of agency MBS by $10 billion, during the monthly purchase period beginning in mid-February.
  • Increase holdings of Treasury securities and agency MBS by additional amounts as needed to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securities.
  • Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 0.25 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
  • Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 0.05 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
  • Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS in agency MBS.
  • Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for purchases and reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
  • Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."
  • In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 0.25 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

資料來源: 經濟日報