美國聯準會決議加速縮減購債規模，預估2022年3月中結束購債

美國聯準會12月15日公布最新決策會議決議，決議將縮減購債規模自2022年1月中開始加速成每月300億美元，比現行縮減規模150億美元加快1倍，若維持相同速度，預期在2022年3月中購債計畫就會完全結束。

聯準會公布的主要會議決議內容，基準聯邦基金利率仍維持在0%~0.25%，自2021年12月中購入國債規模為600億美元、購入抵押貸款證券(MBS)規模為300億美元，合計900億美元；自2022年1月中起，購入國債規模縮減成為400億美元、購入MBS規模縮減成為200億美元。

這次會議當中公布的點陣圖顯示，18位委員全數預期2022年將會升息，當中17位委員認為2022年會升息2碼(0.5%)以上，有12位委員認為會升息3碼(0.75%)以上。

預估2021年美國實質GDP成長率為5.5%，相較前次會議下調0.4%；預估失業率為4.3%，相較前次會議下調0.5%，預估PCE通膨率為5.3%，相較前次會議大幅調升1.1%；預估核心PCE通膨率為4.4%，相較前次會議調升0.7%。

主席鮑威爾記者會當中表示，通膨問題較預期來得大而且時間更長，主因為新冠肺炎疫情蔓延，也表示不會在縮減購債結束之前就進行升息，提早結束購債行動，給聯準會調整利率空間。

圖資來源：美國聯準會

Implementation Note issued December 15, 2021 (December 15, 2021)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on December 15, 2021:

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 0.15 percent, effective December 16, 2021.

As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective December 16, 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 0 to 1/4 percent.
• Complete the increase in System Open Market Account (SOMA) holdings of Treasury securities by $60 billion and of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by $30 billion, as indicated in the monthly purchase plans released in mid- December.
• Increase the SOMA holdings of Treasury securities by $40 billion and of agency MBS by $20 billion, during the monthly purchase period beginning in mid-January.
• Increase holdings of Treasury securities and agency MBS by additional amounts as needed to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securities.
• Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 0.25 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
• Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 0.05 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
• Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS in agency MBS.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for purchases and reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
• Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 0.25 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.