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  • 聯準會決議維持基準聯邦基金利率區間在5.25%~5.5%不變,連續2次會議沒有變動利率,仍然是2001年之後22年來的新高水準
  • 回顧聯準會自2022年3月16日展開這波升息循環,共計升息11次(2022年7次共17碼+2023年4次共4碼),累計升幅達21碼(5.25%)
  • 聯準會主席鮑威爾會後記者會中表示,這波升息循環已經有所進展,聯準會將致力實行足夠限制性的貨幣政策,以利於長期通膨率回到2%

美國聯準會11月1日決策會議後決議,維持基準聯邦基金利率區間在5.25%~5.5%不變,連續2次會議沒有變動利率,仍然是2001年之後22年來的新高水準,下次會議時間預定在2023年12月12~13日。

回顧聯準會自2022年3月16日展開這波升息循環,共計升息11次(2022年7次共17碼+2023年4次共4碼),累計升幅達21碼(5.25%),這11次升息的宣布時間與升息幅度,依序為2022年3月16日升息1碼、2022年5月4日升息2碼、2022年6月15日升息3碼、2022年7月27日升息3碼、2022年9月21日升息3碼、2022年11月2日升息3碼,2022年12月15日升息2碼,2023年2月1日升息1碼,2023年3月22日升息1碼,2023年5月3日升息1碼,2023年7月26日升息1碼。

聯準會在會後聲明中表示,最近的指標顯示第三季經濟活動仍然強勁成長,就業成長有所放緩,但是整體而言依然強勁,失業率也維持在相對較低水準,通貨膨脹(通膨)仍然居高不下。

美國銀行體系健全且富有彈性,家庭與企業的金融及信貸條件收緊可能會對經濟活動、就業與通膨造成壓力,這些的影響程度仍然不確定,聯準會仍然高度關注通膨風險。委員會力求長期達到最大就業與通膨率回到2%,為了支持這個目標,委員會決議將聯邦基金利率區間維持在5.25%~5.5%,後續將會繼續評估更多資訊,及其對貨幣政策的影響。在確定適當的額外政策緊縮程度時,委員會將會考慮貨幣政策的累積緊縮、貨幣政策影響經濟活動與通膨的延遲性,以及金融狀態。此外委員會將持續減少持有國債,機構債務,與抵押貸款證券(MBS)。國債方面先前購入的部分,每月上限600億美元到期回收的本金不再投入購債,抵押貸款證券(MBS)方面先前購入的部分,每月上限350億美元到期回收的本金不再投入購買。

聯準會主席鮑威爾會後記者會中表示,這波升息循環已經有所進展,聯準會將致力實行足夠限制性的貨幣政策,以利於長期通膨率回到2%,對於達到這項立場目前還沒有信心。也表示暫停升息不表示結束升息循環,官員們將會依據經濟數據、前景變化等因素評估各種風險,決定貨幣政策進一步緊縮程度,與其他限制性政策維持多長時間。

圖資來源:美國聯準會

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (November 01, 2023)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued November 1, 2023 (November 01, 2023)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on November 1, 2023:

  • The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 5.4 percent, effective November 2, 2023.
  • As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:
    • "Effective November 2, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:
      • Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
      • Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 5.5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
      • Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 5.3 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
      • Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
      • Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month.
      • Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
      • Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."
  • In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 5.5 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

資料來源: 中央社