歐洲央行升息2碼，3月起資產購入計畫每月將縮減150億歐元

歐洲央行(ECB)於2月2日宣布升息2碼(0.5%)，調升後歐元區三大主要利率分別是隔夜存款利率為2.5%，主要再融資利率(MRO)為3%、隔夜貸款利率(MLF)為3.25%，當中隔夜存款利率已經來到2008年以來新高。

歐洲央行自2022年7月21日升息2碼開始啟動本波升息循環，至今共計升息5次，依序為2022年7月21日升息2碼，2022年9月5日升息3碼，2022年10月27日升息3碼，2022年12月15日升息2碼，以及2023年2月2日升息2碼，2022年共計升息4次，累計升幅為10碼(2.5%)，2023年升息1次，升幅為2碼(0.5%)，合計升幅12碼(3%)。

ECB於聲明中表示，將會維持以穩定速度大幅升息的路徑，將利率保持在足夠嚴格的水準，確保通膨及時回到2%的中期目標。關於先前量化寬鬆(QE)的資產購買計畫(APP)，與2022年12月的會議相同，計畫從2023年3月初到6月初，投資組合平均每月減少150億歐元，之後再隨時間推移而確定。因肺炎疫情而推出的緊急購買計畫(PEPP)，委員會計畫至少會在2024年底之前，該計畫購買的有價證券到期本金都會進行再投資，未來PEPP縮減會適當管理，避免干擾適當的貨幣政策立場。

Monetary policy decisions (2 February 2023)

The Governing Council will stay the course in raising interest rates significantly at a steady pace and in keeping them at levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to its 2% medium-term target. Accordingly, the Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points and it expects to raise them further. In view of the underlying inflation pressures, the Governing Council intends to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at its next monetary policy meeting in March and it will then evaluate the subsequent path of its monetary policy. Keeping interest rates at restrictive levels will over time reduce inflation by dampening demand and will also guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations. In any event, the Governing Council’s future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach.

The Governing Council today also decided on the modalities for reducing the Eurosystem’s holdings of securities under the asset purchase programme (APP). As communicated in December, the APP portfolio will decline by €15 billion per month on average from the beginning of March until the end of June 2023, and the subsequent pace of portfolio reduction will be determined over time. Partial reinvestments will be conducted broadly in line with current practice. In particular, the remaining reinvestment amounts will be allocated proportionally to the share of redemptions across each constituent programme of the APP and, under the public sector purchase programme (PSPP), to the share of redemptions of each jurisdiction and across national and supranational issuers. For the Eurosystem’s corporate bond purchases, the remaining reinvestments will be tilted more strongly towards issuers with a better climate performance. Without prejudice to the ECB’s price stability objective, this approach will support the gradual decarbonisation of the Eurosystem’s corporate bond holdings, in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

The detailed modalities for reducing the APP holdings are described in a separate press release to be published at 15:45 CET.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 3.00%, 3.25% and 2.50% respectively, with effect from 8 February 2023.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP until the end of February 2023. Subsequently, the APP portfolio will decline at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem will not reinvest all of the principal payments from maturing securities. The decline will amount to €15 billion per month on average until the end of June 2023 and its subsequent pace will be determined over time.

As concerns the PEPP, the Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

Refinancing operations

As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations are contributing to its monetary policy stance.