聯準會如預期降息1碼，但對後續降息預期更趨保守

美國聯準會12月18日公布2024年最後一次決策會議決議，如預期降息1碼(0.25%)，指標聯邦基金利率區間調降後來到4.25%~4.5%，連續3次會議降息，合計在2024年調降3碼(0.75%)。

這次會議公布的經濟展望，將2024年實質GDP成長率上調到2.5%(+0.5%)，失業率下調到4.2%(-0.2%)，顯示經濟表現優於原本預期。然而通膨率也同步調升，2024年整體PCE物價指數成長率上調到2.4%(+0.1%)，核心PCE物價指數成長率上調到2.8%(+0.2%)。同時也上修2025年經濟成長率到2.1%(+0.1%)，下修2025年失業率到4.3%(-0.1%)。上修2025年整體PCE物價指數成長率到2.5%(+0.4%)，上修2025年核心PCE物價指數成長率到2.5%(+0.3%)。

根據這次會議公布的點陣圖，19位委員當中有15位(占比79%)預期2025年底聯邦基金利率區間會在3.75%~4%以下，相較9月19日的看法高了2碼(0.5%)，與最新的聯邦基金利率區間相較，顯示2025年全年可能降息的幅度只有2碼，低於原本9月19日當時預期的4碼。經濟展望中預期2025年聯邦基金利率中值為3.9%，也較9月19日的展望結果高了2碼。預期2026年聯邦基金利率區間則是落在3.25%~3.5%，顯示2026年降息幅度預期也是2碼。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (December 18, 2024)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.

圖資來源：美國聯準會