歐洲央行再度降息1碼，今年來第4度降息

歐洲央行(ECB)於12月12日決議將三大主要利率調降1碼(0.25%)，隔夜存款利率調降後成為3.00%，主要再融資利率(MRO)調降後成為3.15%，隔夜貸款利率(MLF)調降後成為3.40%，自2024年12月18日起實施。

本波降息循環自2024年6月6日開始，針對指標隔夜存款利率，6月6日宣布調降1碼，9月12日宣布調降1碼，10月17日宣布調降1碼，12月12日宣布調降1碼，共計調降4次，累計調降1.00%(4碼)。

歐洲央行在聲明中表示，這次降息主因為基於通膨前景與潛在通膨動態，以及貨幣政策傳導力度的最新評估。當擴大後的歐盟排放交易體系投入運作時，預期2024年整體通膨率平均為2.4%(較9月12日的預估值下修0.1%)，2025年為2.1%(較9月12日的預估值下修0.1%)，2026年為1.9%(與9月12日的預估值相同)，2027年為2.1%。預期不含能源與食物後的核心通膨率2024年平均為2.9%(與9月12日的預估值相同)，2025年為2.3%(與9月12日的預估值相同)，2026年為1.9%(較9月12日的預估值下修0.1%)，2027年為1.9%。

多數潛在通膨指標反應通膨率將會持續穩定在理事會2%的中期目標附近，區域內通膨雖有所下降，但仍然處於相對高位，主因是部分行業工資與物價仍然在適應過去的通膨飆升，調整過程有相當的延遲。

委員會近期降息逐漸降低企業與家庭借貸成本，融資條件正在放寬，由於目前貨幣政策仍具限制性，過去升息效應仍在傳導到尚未償還的信貸存量，因此該部位仍在緊縮。

預期2024年經濟成長率為0.7%(較9月12日的預估值下修0.1%)，2025年為1.1%(較9月12日的預估值下修0.2%)，2026年為1.4%(較9月12日的預估值下修0.1%)，2027年為1.3%。

關於先前針對疫情的緊急資產購買計畫(PEPP)，歐元區內不再對先前購入的有價證券到期本金進行再投資，因此PEPP投資組合預期每月將會減少75億歐元。原本的資產購買計畫(APP)在歐元區內也不再對先前購入的有價證券到期本金進行再投資，整體APP投資組合正在以可衡量與可預測的速度下降中。

Monetary policy decisions (12 December 2024)

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance – is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The disinflation process is well on track. Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.

Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis. Domestic inflation has edged down but remains high, mostly because wages and prices in certain sectors are still adjusting to the past inflation surge with a substantial delay.

Financing conditions are easing, as the Governing Council’s recent interest rate cuts gradually make new borrowing less expensive for firms and households. But they continue to be tight because monetary policy remains restrictive and past interest rate hikes are still transmitting to the outstanding stock of credit.

Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter. Staff see the economy growing by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. The projected recovery rests mainly on rising real incomes – which should allow households to consume more – and firms increasing investment. Over time, the gradually fading effects of restrictive monetary policy should support a pick-up in domestic demand.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.00%, 3.15% and 3.40% respectively, with effect from 18 December 2024.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP portfolio is declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP, reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average. The Governing Council will discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.

Refinancing operations

Banks will repay the remaining amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations this month, which concludes this part of the balance sheet normalisation process.

圖資來源：ECB