歐洲央行今年第3度宣布降息

歐洲央行(ECB)於10月17日決議將三大主要利率調降1碼(0.25%)，隔夜存款利率調降後成為3.25%，主要再融資利率(MRO)調降後成為3.40%，隔夜貸款利率(MLF)調降後成為3.65%，自2024年10月23日起實施。

本波降息循環自2024年6月6日開始，針對指標隔夜存款利率，6月6日宣布調降1碼，9月12日宣布調降1碼，10月17日宣布調降1碼，共計調降3次，累計調降0.75%(3碼)。

歐洲央行在聲明中表示，決定降低隔夜存款利率(此為理事會引導貨幣政策立場的利率)是基於對於通膨前景、前在通膨動態，與貨幣政策傳導力度的最新評估。關於通膨最新資訊顯示，通膨緊縮的進程正順利進行中，通膨前景也受到進行經濟活動指標意外下行影響，同時融資條件也受到限制。

預期未來幾個月通膨將會上升，然後在明年(2025年)會下降到目標水準(2%)。因薪資仍然快速上漲中，歐元區內通膨仍然偏高。同時間勞動成本壓力將持續逐步緩解，利潤將會部分緩衝對通膨的影響。委員會決心確保通膨及時回到2%的中期目標，為實現該目標將在必要時間內保持足夠的政策利率限制。

關於先前執行的資產購買計畫(APP)，因歐元體系不再對到期證券回收的本金進行再投資，APP投資組合正在以可衡量且可預期的速度下降。針對疫情進行的緊急購買計畫(PEPP)，在歐元體系內不再對PEPP購買的到期證券所有本金進行再投資，目前平均每個月減少75億歐元，預計在2024年底將會停止PEPP到期證券回收的本金進行再投資。

Monetary policy decisions (17 October 2024)

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance – is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The incoming information on inflation shows that the disinflationary process is well on track. The inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity. Meanwhile, financing conditions remain restrictive.

Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year. Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace. At the same time, labour cost pressures are set to continue easing gradually, with profits partially buffering their impact on inflation.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. In particular, its interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.25%, 3.40% and 3.65% respectively, with effect from 23 October 2024.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP portfolio is declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP, reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average. The Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.

The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

Refinancing operations

As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations and their ongoing repayment are contributing to its monetary policy stance.