聯準會連3次會議升息3碼，預估年底前可能還會再升息5碼

美國聯準會9月21日公布最新貨幣政策決議，確定升息3碼(0.75%)，連續3次會議都升3碼，聯邦基金利率最新區間上升到3%~3.25%，2022年以來共計升息5次，累計升息幅度達到12碼(3%)。回顧前4次宣布升息時間與升息幅度依序為3月16日升息1碼、5月4日升息2碼、6月15日升息3碼、7月27日升息3碼。

聯準會公布的聲明中表示，近期的經濟指標表明支出與生產依然適度成長，近幾個月的就業成長強勁，失業率依然維持在相對低檔。然而通貨膨脹仍然居高不下，反映的是肺炎疫情大流行，食品與能源價格上漲，與因為供需失衡引發的價格上升壓力。俄羅斯與烏克蘭戰爭仍然對經濟產生巨大衝擊，戰爭相關事件也對通膨推升形成額外的壓力，聯準會持續高度關注通膨。

這次會議公布的點陣圖中顯示，19位投票委員當中，高達18位認為2022年聯邦基金利率區間會在4%~4.25%以上，與目前的水準相較至少還有4碼(1%)的漲幅；當中有10位(超過半數)認為2022年底聯邦基金利率會達4.25%~4.5%以上，與目前水準相較至少還有5碼(1.25%)的漲幅。至於2023年的利率水準預估，18位委員認為會在4.25~4.5%以上，12位委員(超過半數)認為會在4.5%~4.75%以上，意謂聯準會在2023年底前應該都不會降息。

這次會議公布的主要經濟指標預期，預估2022年實質國內生產毛額(GDP)成長率為0.2%，遠低於6月的預估值1.7%，2023年實質GDP成長率預估為1.2%，同樣低於6月的預估值1.7%；預估2022年失業率為3.8%，較6月的預估值3.7%上升0.1%，預估2023年失業率會進一步上升到4.4%，較6月預估值3.9%高0.5%；預估2022年PCE物價指數(通膨率指標)年增率為5.4%，較6月的預估值5.2%多0.2%，預估2023年PCE物價指數年增率會縮減到2.8%，較6月預估值2.6%多0.2%；預估2022年核心PCE物價指數年增率為4.5%，較6月的預估值多0.2%，預估2023年核心PCE物價指數年增率會縮減到3.1%，較6月的預估值多0.4%。預估聯邦基金利率終值在2022年為4.5%，較6月預估值3.4%大幅上升1%，預估2023年為4.6%，較6月預估值上升0.8%，也比2022年的預估值多0.2%，預估2024年會降到3.9%，反映聯準會對於利率的態度，在2023年底之前都不會降息。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement(September 21, 2022)

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued September 21, 2022 (September 21, 2022)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on September 21, 2022:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.15 percent, effective September 22, 2022.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective September 22, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3 to 3-1/4 percent.
• Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 3.25 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
• Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.05 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
• Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 3/4 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate to 3.25 percent, effective September 22, 2022. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Dallas.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

圖資來源：美國聯準會