聯準會升息1碼，2022年至今共計升息5%

美國聯準會5月3日決策會議(2023年第3次)，決議升息1碼(0.25%)，調升後聯邦基金利率來到5%~5.25%，來到2007年8月以來新高水準，自5月4日起生效，今年(2023年)以來已經3度升息，合計調升0.75%。

聯準會自2022年3月16日開始至今共升息10次(2022年7次共17碼+2023年3次共3碼)，累計升幅達20碼(5%)，回顧前9次宣布升息的時間與升息幅度，依序為2022年3月16日升息1碼、2022年5月4日升息2碼、2022年6月15日升息3碼、2022年7月27日升息3碼、2022年9月21日升息3碼、2022年11月2日升息3碼，2022年12月15日升息2碼，2023年2月1日升息1碼，2023年3月22日升息1碼。

聯準會主席鮑威爾記者會上表示，利率是否已經回升到足以讓通膨回到2%的目標，將會依據相關數據持續評估，聯準會官員對通膨展望並不支持降息。

聯準會在聲明中表示，第一季經濟活動溫和擴張，進幾個月就業增長強勁，失業率保持在低檔，通貨膨脹率依然很高。美國銀行體系健全且富有彈性，家庭與企業的信貸條件收緊可能會對經濟活動、招聘(就業)與通膨造成壓力，這些因素的影響程度仍不確定，委員會仍然高度關注通膨風險。

委員會力求在長期內實現最大就業，以及通膨率回復到2%，為支持這些目標，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率區間提升到5%~5.25%，委員會將會密切關注即將到來的訊息，並且評估對貨幣政策的影響。在確定額外的政策緊縮到何種程度合適、且能讓通膨率回到2%的貨幣政策立場時，委員會將考慮貨幣政策的累計緊縮、貨幣政策在影響經濟活動和通膨上的滯後性，以及經濟和金融的發展。此外，如同之前公布的計畫，委員會將繼續減持美國公債、機構債和機構抵押貸款證券，委員會堅定致力於讓通膨回歸其2%的目標。

在評估貨幣政策的適當立場時，委員會將繼續監測即將到來的訊息對經濟前景的影響。如果出現可能阻礙委員會目標實現的風險，委員會將準備適當調整貨幣政策立場。委員會的評估將考慮廣泛的訊息，包括勞動力市場狀況、通膨壓力和通膨預期以及金融和國際發展的數據。

關於縮減資產負債表(縮表)的實施行動，仍維持每月到期的美國公債以600億美元為上限，到期不續購；抵押貸款證券(MBS)以每月350億美元為上限，到期不續購；合計每月上限950億美元到期不續購。

圖資來源：美國聯準會

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (May 03, 2023)

Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued May 3, 2023 (May 03, 2023)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on May 3, 2023:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 5.15 percent, effective May 4, 2023.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective May 4, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 5 to 5‑1/4 percent.
  • Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 5.25 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
  • Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 5.05 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
  • Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
  • Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month.
  • Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
  • Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."
• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate to 5.25 percent, effective May 4, 2023. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.