美國聯準會降息2碼，預期年底前仍有2碼降息空間

美國聯準會9月19日決策會議決議降息2碼(0.5%)，調降後指標聯邦基金利率區間降到4.75%~5%，這是近4年來首度降息，上回宣布降息是在2020年3月15日召開的緊急會議，背景是新冠肺炎(COVID-19)大流行初期，一口氣調降4碼(1%)，指標聯邦基金利率區間調降後來到0%~0.25%，是金融海嘯期間最低的利率水準，也將自2015年12月起進行的升息循環，期間回升的利率全數用盡。。

聯準會在公開聲明中表示，最近的指標顯示經濟活動持續穩定擴張，就業成長放緩，失業率上升，但仍然處於較低水準。通貨膨脹(通膨率)已經朝委員會2%的目標邁進，但仍處於較高水準。

委員會力求在長期達到最大就業與2%的通膨率目標，對於通膨率持續向2%邁進的信心增強，並判斷實現就業與通膨目標的風險大致平衡。有鑑於通膨進展與風險平衡，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率區間調降0.5%，到4.75%~5%。在考慮對聯邦基金利率目標範圍進行進一步調整時，委員會將會仔細評估相關數據、變動的經濟前景與風險平衡。委員會將會持續減少持有的公債、機構債務與抵押貸款證券(MBS)。

在評估適當貨幣政策立場時，會持續監測資訊對經濟前景的影響，如果出現可能阻礙委員會目標實現的風險，將準備酌情調整貨幣政策立場。納入評估的資訊包括勞動力市場狀況、通膨壓力、通膨預期，與金融和國際發展數據。

關於縮減資產負債表(QT)的行動，對於先前購入的美國公債每月到期不續購(回收)上限維持250億美元(6月之前的上限為600億美元)，機構債務與抵押貸款證券(MBS)每月到期不續購(回收)上限維持350億美元，超過上限的部分再投資到美國公債，合計上限為600億美元。

根據這次會議公布的點陣圖對於聯邦基金利率區間預期，19位委員當中有10位(53%)預期2024年會落在4.25%~4.5%以下，與調降前的水準相較，低4碼(1%)，與調降後的水準相較，還有2碼(0.5%)調降空間。19位委員當中有14位(74%)預期2025年會落在3.25%~3.5%以下，與調降前的水準相較，低8碼(2%)，與調降後的水準相較，還有6碼(1.5%)調降空間，意味2025年仍有4碼(1%)的降息空間。此次會議公布的經濟展望，對於聯邦基金利率中值預估，2024年為4.4%，相較上次調降0.7%，2025年為3.4%，相較上次調降0.7%，相較2024年預估值低4碼(1%)。

經濟展望對於經濟成長率預期，2024年調降到2%，下修0.1%；2025年為2%，沒有調整。對失業率預期，2024年調升到4.4%，上修0.4%；2025年也調升到4.4%，上修0.2%。對通膨率PCE個人消費支出物價指數年增率預期，2024年調降到2.3%，下修0.3%；2025年調降到2.1%，下修0.2%。對核心通膨率PCE個人消費支出物價指數年增率預期，2024年調降到2.6%，下修0.2%；2025年調降到2.2%，下修0.1%。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (September 18, 2024)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Michelle W. Bowman, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

Implementation Note issued September 18, 2024

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on September 18, 2024:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to lower the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 4.9 percent, effective September 19, 2024.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective September 19, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 4‑3/4 to 5 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 4.8 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• Reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
• Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/2 percentage point decrease in the primary credit rate to 5 percent, effective September 19, 2024. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

圖資來源：美國聯準會