歐洲央行再度降息1碼，調降今年歐元區經濟成長率預估值到0.8%

歐洲央行9月12日決策會議決議將主要指標利率降息1碼(0.25%)，隔夜存款利率調降後成為3.5%，自9月18日起生效。另外兩項指標利率，主要再融資利率(MRO)調整後成為3.65%，設定與隔夜存款利率保持0.15%的利差，隔夜貸款利率(MLF)調整後成為3.9%，設定與主要再融資利率(MRO)保持0.25%的利差，這是2024年3月13日宣布的運作框架。

本波降息循環自2024年6月6日開始，針對指標隔夜存款利率，6月6日宣布調降1碼，9月12日宣布調降1碼，共計調降2次，累計調降0.5%(2碼)。

歐洲央行在聲明中表示，降息1碼是根據對通膨前景、前在通膨動態與貨幣政策傳導力度的最新評估，認為現在是適當進一步寬鬆貨幣的時候。預期2024年整體通膨率平均為2.5%(與2024年6月6日的預估值相同)，2025年將會縮減到2.2%(與2024年6月6日的預估值相同)，2026年會進一步縮減到1.9%(與2024年6月6日的預估值相同)，這與2024年6月的預期相同。預期2024年下半年通膨率會進一步上升，部分原因是能源價格的低基期效應，2025年下半年通膨率應該會回到歐洲央行設定目標(2%附近)。因服務業通膨仍高於預期，2024年核心通膨率預期為2.9%(較2024年6月6日的預估值擴大0.1%)，2025年將會縮減到2.3%(較2024年6月6日的預估值擴大0.1%)，2026年會進一步縮減到2%(與2024年6月6日的預估值相同)。

預期歐元區2024年經濟成長率為0.8%(較2024年6月6日的預估值縮減0.1%)，2025年會上升到1.3%(較2024年6月6日的預估值縮減0.1%)，2026年會進一步上升到1.5%(較2024年6月6日的預估值縮減0.1%)。

關於先前針對疫情的緊急資產購買計畫(PEPP)，維持2024年下半年平均每月以減少75億歐元為目標，2024年底停止PEPP的再投資，與先前資產購買計畫(APP)一致。

Monetary policy decisions (12 September 2024)

The Governing Council today decided to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which it steers the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points. Based on the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to take another step in moderating the degree of monetary policy restriction.

Recent inflation data have come in broadly as expected, and the latest ECB staff projections confirm the previous inflation outlook. Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, as in the June projections. Inflation is expected to rise again in the latter part of this year, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards our target over the second half of next year. For core inflation, the projections for 2024 and 2025 have been revised up slightly, as services inflation has been higher than expected. At the same time, staff continue to expect a rapid decline in core inflation, from 2.9% this year to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.

Domestic inflation remains high as wages are still rising at an elevated pace. However, labour cost pressures are moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of higher wages on inflation. Financing conditions remain restrictive, and economic activity is still subdued, reflecting weak private consumption and investment. Staff project that the economy will grow by 0.8% in 2024, rising to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. This is a slight downward revision compared with the June projections, mainly owing to a weaker contribution from domestic demand over the next few quarters.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. In particular, its interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

As announced on 13 March 2024, some changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy will take effect from 18 September. In particular, the spread between the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rate will be set at 15 basis points. The spread between the rate on the marginal lending facility and the rate on the main refinancing operations will remain unchanged at 25 basis points.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council decided to lower the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points. The deposit facility rate is the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance. In addition, as announced on 13 March 2024 following the operational framework review, the spread between the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rate will be set at 15 basis points. The spread between the rate on the marginal lending facility and the rate on the main refinancing operations will remain unchanged at 25 basis points. Accordingly, the deposit facility rate will be decreased to 3.50%. The interest rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.65% and 3.90% respectively. The changes will take effect from 18 September 2024.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP portfolio is declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP, reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average. The Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.

The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

Refinancing operations

As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations and their ongoing repayment are contributing to its monetary policy stance.

圖資來源：ECB