歐洲央行升息1碼，指標利率創歷史新高

歐洲央行(ECB)於9月14日決策會議後決議升息1碼(0.25%)，調升後歐元區三大主要利率分別是隔夜存款利率為4%，主要再融資利率(MRO)為4.5%、隔夜貸款利率(MLF)為4.75%，自2023年9月20日起實施，指標利率上升到1999年歐元問世之後23年多來新高。

ECB自2022年7月21日升息2碼開始啟動本波升息循環，至今共計升息10次，宣布時間依序為2022年7月21日升息2碼，2022年9月5日升息3碼，2022年10月27日升息3碼，2022年12月15日升息2碼，2023年2月2日升息2碼，2023年3月16日升息2碼，2023年5月4日升息1碼，2023年6月15日升息1碼，2023年7月27日升息1碼，以及2023年9月14日升息1碼，2022年共計升息4次，累計升幅為10碼(2.5%)，2023年升息6次，升幅為8碼(2%)，合計升幅18碼(4.5%)。

歐洲央行在聲明中表示，通貨膨脹持續下降，但預期還會有一段長時間維持在過高的水準，委員會決心確保通膨率及時回到2%的中期目標，為了加強實現目標的進展，決定將3項關鍵利率調升1碼。

對於歐元區2023年平均通膨率預期調升到5.6%(6月15日決策會議預估值為5.4%)，2024年通膨率預期調升到3.2%(6月15日決策會議預估值為3%)，2025年通膨率調降到2.1%(6月15日決策會議預估值為2.2%)，調升2023年與2024年通膨率預期主因為反映能源價格走升。

預估歐元區不含能源與食物的核心通膨率2023年為5.1%(與6月15日決策會議預估值相同)，2024年為2.9%(6月15日決策會議預估值為3%)，2025年為2.2%(6月15日決策會議預估值為2.3%)。

預估歐元區2023年經濟成長率為0.7%，2024年經濟成長率為1%，2025年經濟成長率為1.5%。

關於先前資產購買計畫(APP)(QE/量化寬鬆)，對於先前購入的有價證券到期後的本金不再進行投資，APP投資組合正以可衡量與可預測的速度下降中。另外因應疫情的緊急購買計畫(PEPP)，委員會計畫至少在2024年底之前，購入的有價證券到期本金都會進行再投資。

圖資來源：歐洲央行(ECB)

Monetary policy decisions (14 September 2023)

Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long. The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. In order to reinforce progress towards its target, the Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.

The rate increase today reflects the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The September ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area see average inflation at 5.6% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. This is an upward revision for 2023 and 2024 and a downward revision for 2025. The upward revision for 2023 and 2024 mainly reflects a higher path for energy prices. Underlying price pressures remain high, even though most indicators have started to ease. ECB staff have slightly revised down the projected path for inflation excluding energy and food, to an average of 5.1% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. The Governing Council’s past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully. Financing conditions have tightened further and are increasingly dampening demand, which is an important factor in bringing inflation back to target. With the increasing impact of this tightening on domestic demand and the weakening international trade environment, ECB staff have lowered their economic growth projections significantly. They now expect the euro area economy to expand by 0.7% in 2023, 1.0% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025.

Based on its current assessment, the Governing Council considers that the key ECB interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target. The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively, with effect from 20 September 2023.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP portfolio is declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

As concerns the PEPP, the Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

Refinancing operations

As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations and their ongoing repayment are contributing to its monetary policy stance.

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The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.