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  • 美國聯準會6月決策會議,維持基準聯邦基金利率在5.25%~5.5%,連續7次會議沒有調整利率
  • 本次會議點陣圖與經濟展望,顯示2024年降息空間可能只剩1碼,2025年可能的降息空間為4碼
  • 聯準會聲明中表示,過去一年通膨有所放緩,但仍然處於相對高檔,近幾個月來委員會在2%的通膨目標上取得小幅的進展

美國聯準會6月12日決策會議,維持基準聯邦基金利率在5.25%~5.5%,連續7次會議沒有調整利率。

這次會議的重點就是公布2024年以來第2次的點陣圖與經濟展望,這次點陣圖的結果,19位委員當中有15位(79%)認為2024年聯邦基金利率區間會在5%~5.25%以下,與目前的利率區間相較,僅有1碼(0.25%)差距,與上次的點陣圖3碼差距相較,可能降息的空間減少2碼。19位委員當中有13位(68%)認為2025年聯邦基金利率區間會在4%~4.25%以下,與目前的利率區間相較,有5碼(1.25%)差距,與上次的點陣圖6碼差距相較,可能累計降息的空間減少1碼。

這次會議的經濟展望當中對於聯邦基金利率中值的預期,2024年為5.1%,相較目前的利率水準低1碼(0.25%),與上次的經濟展望3碼差距相較,可能降息的空間減少2碼。預期2025年聯邦基金利率中值為4.1%,相較目前的利率水準低5碼(1.25%),與上次的經濟展望6碼差距相較,可能累計降息的空間減少1碼。

聯準會在會後聲明中表示,最近的經濟指標顯示經濟活動持續穩定擴張,就業成長依然強勁,失業率也維持在較低水準。過去一年通膨有所放緩,但仍然處於相對高檔,近幾個月來委員會在2%的通膨目標上取得小幅的進展。

委員會力求在長期達到最大就業與2%通膨率目標,判斷實現就業與通膨目標的風險,在過去一年已經趨向更好的平衡。經濟前景不明,委員會仍高度關注通膨風險。為支持目標,委員會決議將聯邦基金利率目標區間維持在5.25%~5.5%。在考量聯邦基金利率目標區間調整時,委員會將會仔細評估數據,不斷變化的前景與風險平衡。在通膨率更有信心持續向2%目標邁進前,不宜調降目標目標範圍。

關於縮減資產負債表(QT)的行動,對於先前購入的美國公債每月到期不續購(回收)上限維持250億美元(6月之前的上限為600億美元),機構債務與抵押貸款證券(MBS)每月到期不續購(回收)上限維持350億美元,超過上限的部分再投資到美國公債,合計上限為600億美元。

圖資來源:美國聯準會(經濟展望)

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (June 12, 2024)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued June 12, 2024 (June 12, 2024)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

  • The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on June 12, 2024:
  • The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 5.4 percent, effective June 13, 2024.

As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective June 13, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

  • Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
  • Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 5.5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
  • Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 5.3 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
  • Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
  • Reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
  • Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
  • Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."
  • In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 5.5 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

資料來源: 經濟日報