新主席華許初登板展鷹派，聯準會暗示年底恐迎來升息

根據美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)在2026年6月17日公布的聲明稿與會議紀要，決策官員在最新的利率會議中，以12票對0票全數通過，決定將聯邦基金利率目標區間維持在3.5%至3.75%不變。這項數字區間代表美國央行對於銀行間隔夜拆款利率的目標範圍，其水位高低將直接影響全球資金成本與各項民生貸款利率。此外，聲明亦提到常設隔夜附賣回操作的每日交易對手上限維持在1,600億美元，藉此維持銀行體系準備金的充裕。聯準會認為，儘管中東衝突帶來高度不確定性，但美國經濟活動持續以穩健的步伐擴張，生產力成長與資本投資表現強勁，就業市場新增人數也與勞動力供給保持同步，失業率變化不大。

然而，通膨數據相對於聯準會設定的2%目標仍然偏高。在最新公布的經濟預測摘要(SEP)中，決策官員將2026年底的核心個人消費支出物價指數(PCE)通膨率中位數預測，從3月預估的2.7%大幅上調至3.3%，總體通膨率也預估為3.6%。此外，2026年的經濟成長率中位數預測為2.2%，低於先前的2.4%；失業率則預估為4.3%。這3項關鍵數字的調整，反映出官員認為物價上漲壓力遠未消除，同時總體經濟依然具有韌性，使得政策焦點必須完全集中於對抗通膨。

最令市場震驚的數據，來自於被稱為「點陣圖」的官員利率預測。在19名與會官員中，有18位提交預測，其中高達9人預期在2026年底前，聯邦基金利率較目前水準更高，也就是表示將會升息，而3月時並沒有任何人預期升息。相反地，目前僅有1人預期降息(比目前水準低1碼)，遠低於3月時的12人。這項超過半數決策者轉向升息或維持高利率的數據分布，徹底粉碎市場原先對於降息的期待，明確預示聯準會貨幣政策的下一步走向，極可能由緊縮取代寬鬆。

【華許首場記者會深度解析：鷹派領航與體制大改造】

除了會議本身的決策，新任主席華許在會後記者會的發言與態度，更是全球財經界關注的焦點。他的首次登板，明確展現強硬對抗通膨的鷹派立場，以及大刀闊斧推動內部改革的決心。

第1，華許在政策溝通風格上帶來顯著轉變。本次會後聲明稿大幅精簡，刪除過去常見的「前瞻指引」(forward guidance)冗長詞彙，僅保留對當前經濟數據的客觀陳述。華許認為，在當前高度不確定的環境下，給予過度承諾並不合適。他本人甚至打破14年來的慣例，選擇不提交自己的利率預測點陣圖，並淡化同僚預測的絕對性，強調官員們對於經濟前景仍有極大變數的共識。

第2，華許強烈重申聯準會對抗通膨的承諾。他直言，高昂的物價長期以來成為美國民眾的沉重負擔，雖然過去5年通膨率持續高於2%的長期目標，但「最近的情況未必成為未來的先例」。他強調委員會內部立場明確且一致，將必定實現物價穩定的目標。針對會議中關於利率路徑的討論，華許毫不避諱地承認，決策官員內部進行1場「內部良性激辯」(good family fight)，顯示在通膨惡化之際，決策圈內的觀點產生激烈碰撞，但最終由緊縮抗通膨的鷹派主導未來政策走向。

第3，華許展現強烈的改革企圖心，宣布在聯準會內部成立5個專案小組，全面重新檢視央行的核心職能。這5大領域包含：1.聯準會的溝通方式；2.資產負債表政策與準備金機制；3.現有資料來源的運用與方法論改進；4.生產力與就業在人工智慧(AI)等新通用技術轉型時代的影響；5.聯準會的通膨政策架構。這些專案小組將由內部與外部頂尖專家組成，預計在2026年底前提出現行常態的替代方案與政策改進建議。華許坦言，推動改變充滿風險，但他期望藉此打造1個任務清晰、專注未來挑戰的全新聯準會。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Implementation Note issued June 17, 2026

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on June 17, 2026:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, effective June 18, 2026.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective June 18, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations at a rate of 3.75 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.5 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• When appropriate, increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves.
• Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities. Reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 3.75 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

圖資來源：美國聯準會(記者會、經濟展望)