歐洲央行連2個月升息3碼

歐洲央行(ECB)於10月27日決策會議決議升息3碼(0.75%)，與上回會議相同均為歷史最大升幅，調升後歐元區三大主要利率分別是隔夜存款利率為1.5%，主要再融資利率(MRO)為2%、隔夜貸款利率(MLF)為2.25%，連續3次會議都升息。前2次宣布升息分別是在2022年7月21日升息幅度為2碼，2022年9月5日升息幅度3碼，加上這次本波升息循環已升息3次，累計升幅為2%(8碼)。

ECB在聲明中表示，進一步升息目的在確保通膨率可以及時回到2%的中期目標，目前的通膨率仍高，預期在很長的一段時間內都會在目標之上。9月歐元區通膨率終值達9.9%，近幾個月能源與食品價格飆升、供應鏈瓶頸與疫後復甦致使物價上升壓力擴大，通膨加劇。

對於先前的量化寬鬆(QE)資產購買計畫(APP)，購入的有價證券到期本金將會全數再投資。針對疫情大流行的緊急購買計畫(PEPP)也會將到期證券的本金再投資，至少到2024年底。對於第三輪定向長期再融資操作(TLTRO III)將改變效期與適用條件，自2022年11月23日起調整適用利率，將依ECB主要利率為基礎並且指數化，並對銀行業提出自動提前償還日期。經濟學家分析此舉為犧牲經濟成長，全力對抗通膨壓力。

圖資來源：ECB

Monetary policy decisions (27 October 2022)

The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points. With this third major policy rate increase in a row, the Governing Council has made substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation. The Governing Council took today’s decision, and expects to raise interest rates further, to ensure the timely return of inflation to its 2% medium-term inflation target. The Governing Council will base the future policy rate path on the evolving outlook for inflation and the economy, following its meeting-by-meeting approach.

Inflation remains far too high and will stay above the target for an extended period. In September, euro area inflation reached 9.9%. In recent months, soaring energy and food prices, supply bottlenecks and the post-pandemic recovery in demand have led to a broadening of price pressures and an increase in inflation. The Governing Council’s monetary policy is aimed at reducing support for demand and guarding against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.

The Governing Council also decided to change the terms and conditions of the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III). During the acute phase of the pandemic, this instrument played a key role in countering downside risks to price stability. Today, in view of the unexpected and extraordinary rise in inflation, it needs to be recalibrated to ensure that it is consistent with the broader monetary policy normalisation process and to reinforce the transmission of policy rate increases to bank lending conditions. The Governing Council therefore decided to adjust the interest rates applicable to TLTRO III from 23 November 2022 and to offer banks additional voluntary early repayment dates.

Finally, in order to align the remuneration of minimum reserves held by credit institutions with the Eurosystem more closely with money market conditions, the Governing Council decided to set the remuneration of minimum reserves at the ECB’s deposit facility rate.

The details of the changes to the TLTRO III terms and conditions are described in a separate press release to be published at 15:45 CET. Another technical press release, detailing the change to the remuneration of minimum reserves, will also be published at 15:45 CET.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 2.00%, 2.25% and 1.50% respectively, with effect from 2 November 2022.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it started raising the key ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain ample liquidity conditions and an appropriate monetary policy stance.

As concerns the PEPP, the Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

Refinancing operations

The Governing Council decided to adjust the interest rates applicable to TLTRO III. From 23 November 2022 until the maturity date or early repayment date of each respective outstanding TLTRO III operation, the interest rate on TLTRO III operations will be indexed to the average applicable key ECB interest rates over this period. The Governing Council also decided to offer banks additional voluntary early repayment dates. In any case, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations are contributing to its monetary policy stance.

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The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term. The Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.