聯準會維持利率不變，預期年底基準利率仍有2碼升息空間

美國聯準會6月15日決策會議，決議維持基準聯邦基金利率在5%~5.25%不變，仍是自2007年8月以來的最高點，這是自2022年3月至今首次會議沒有進行升息，各項貨幣政策決議自6月15日起生效。

這次會議公布的經濟展望，2023年實質國內生產毛額(GDP)成長率預估值上修到1%，相較3月的預估值上調0.6%；2023年失業率預估值下修到4.1%，相較3月的預估值下調0.4%；2023年個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數成長率預估值下修到3.2%，相較3月的預估值下調0.1%；2023年核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數成長率預估值上修到3.9%，相較3月的預估值上調0.3%。2023年聯邦基金利率預估中值上修到5.6%，相較3月的預估值上修0.5%(2碼)；2024年聯邦基金利率中值也上修到4.6%，相較3月的預估值上修0.3%(1碼)，與2023年的預估值相較低了1%(4碼)，顯示2024年有高度降息的可能性。

回顧聯準會自2022年3月16日展開這波升息循環，共計升息10次(2022年7次共17碼+2023年3次共3碼)，累計升幅達20碼(5%)，這10次升息的宣布時間與升息幅度，依序為2022年3月16日升息1碼、2022年5月4日升息2碼、2022年6月15日升息3碼、2022年7月27日升息3碼、2022年9月21日升息3碼、2022年11月2日升息3碼，2022年12月15日升息2碼，2023年2月1日升息1碼，2023年3月22日升息1碼，2023年5月3日升息1碼。

聯準會在聲明中表示，最近的指標表明經濟活動仍以溫和速度擴張，近幾個月就業增長強勁，失業率也維持在相對低點，通膨率仍然很高。美國銀行體系健全且富有彈性，家庭與企業的信貸條件收緊可能對經濟活動、招聘與通膨產生壓力，這些影響程度依然存在不確定性，委員會仍然高度關注通膨風險。

委員會力求在長期內實現最大就業，與通膨率回到2%的目標，為了支持這些目標委員會決議將聯邦基金利率區間維持在5%~5.25%，這次會議保持利率不變，讓委員會能夠評估更多訊息與對貨幣政策影響。此外，委員會將會持續減持美國國債(公債)、機構債務與機構抵押貸款債券(MBS)，跟先前公布的計畫一樣沒有改變，美國國債(公債)每月到期不續購的目標上限金額為600億美元，抵押貸款證券(MBS)每月到期不續購的目標上限金額為350億美元。

根據這次會議公布的點陣圖，18位委員當中有12位委員認為2023年聯邦基金利率區間會落在5.5%~5.75%以上，與目前的聯邦基金利率區間5%~5.25%相較，仍有2碼以上的升息空間。18位委員當中有12位委員認為2024年聯邦基金利率區間會落在4.75%~5%以下，與目前聯邦基金利率區間5%~5.25%相較，顯示2024年有高度降息的可能性。

聯準會主席鮑威爾在記者會中表示，多數官員預期會進一步緊縮貨幣，這次會議不升息並非跳過，而是要有額外的時間來觀察相關數據檢視貨幣政策效果。針對這次聯準會公布的經濟展望，將今年經濟成長率預估值調升，將今年失業率調降，鮑威爾表示美國經濟仍有可能邁向軟著陸。對於聯準會降息的時間點，鮑威爾表示通膨真正明顯下降的時候，降息將會是合適的，暗示時間點在2年後。

圖資來源：美國聯準會

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (June 14, 2023)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent. Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued June 14, 2023 (June 14, 2023)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on June 14, 2023:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 5.15 percent, effective June 15, 2023.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective June 15, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 5 to 5-1/4 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 5.25 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 5.05 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
• Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 5.25 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.