聯準會維持利率不變，調降縮表速度

美國聯準會5月1日決策會議決議維持基準聯邦基金利率區間在5.25%~5.5%不變，連續6次會議沒調整利率，同時也決定自6月起縮減資產負債表的規模減緩。聯準會主席鮑威爾表示降息門檻變高，但升息門檻更高，聯準會下一步不太可能升息，升息前提是委員會看到令人信服的數據，顯示目前貨幣政策還不夠緊縮讓通膨率回到2%目標，委員會目前沒有看到支持這項論調的證據。

聯準會聲明中表示，近期的指標顯示經濟活動穩定擴張，就業成長依然強勁，失業率也維持在較低水準。過去一年通膨有所放緩，但仍然處於高位，近幾個月來委員會在實現通膨率達到2%目標部分缺乏進一步的進展。

委員會力求長期達到最大就業與通膨率達到2%，判斷實現就業與通膨目標風險在過去一年已趨向更好的平衡，目前經濟前景不明朗，委員會仍然高度關注通膨風險。為了支持目標，決定將聯邦基金利率目標範圍維持在5.25%~5.5%，考量聯邦基金利率範圍調整時，委員會將仔細評估經濟數據，以及不斷變化的經濟前景與風險平衡。委員會預計在更有信心邁向通膨率達到2%之前，不宜調降基準利率目標範圍。

此外，委員會將會繼續減少先前購入的國債(公債)、機構債務以及抵押貸款證券(MBS)。從2024年6月起委員會對國債到期不續購(贖回上限)從原本的600億美元，調降到250億美元，減緩國債持有量下降速度。對於機構債務與抵押貸款證券(MBS)每月贖回上限仍然維持在350億美元。

回顧聯準會自2022年6月1日起對因新冠肺炎疫情實施的量化寬鬆(QE)進行反向出脫(縮減資產負債表QT/縮表)，預計自2022年6月起每月縮減475億美元(公債縮減上限300億美元+MBS縮減上限175億美元)，自2022年9月起每月縮減量倍增到950億美元(公債縮減上限600億美元+MBS縮減上限350億美元)。

圖資來源：美國聯準會

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (May 01, 2024)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued May 1, 2024 (May 01, 2024)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on May 1, 2024:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 5.4 percent, effective May 2, 2024.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective May 2, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
  • Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 5.5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
  • Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 5.3 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
  • Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in May that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Beginning on June 1, roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to these monthly caps and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly caps.
  • Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in May that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month. Beginning on June 1, reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
  • Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
  • Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."
  • In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 5.5 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.