歐洲央行升息1碼，同時調降今明兩年經濟成長率預估

歐洲央行(ECB)於6月15日決策會議後決議升息1碼(0.25%)，調升後歐元區三大主要利率分別是隔夜存款利率為3.5%，主要再融資利率(MRO)為4%、隔夜貸款利率(MLF)為4.25%，自2023年6月21日起實施，指標利率上升到自2001年之後22年來新高。

ECB自2022年7月21日升息2碼開始啟動本波升息循環，至今共計升息8次，宣布時間依序為2022年7月21日升息2碼，2022年9月5日升息3碼，2022年10月27日升息3碼，2022年12月15日升息2碼，2023年2月2日升息2碼，2023年3月16日升息2碼，2023年5月4日升息1碼，以及2023年6月15日升息1碼，2022年共計升息4次，累計升幅為10碼(2.5%)，2023年升息4次，升幅為6碼(1.5%)，合計升幅16碼(4%)。

ECB於聲明中表示，通膨率持續下降中，但預期還會有一段時間維持在相對高檔，委員會決心確保通膨率及時回到2%的中期目標，因此決定將三大主要利率調升1碼。

ECB預估歐元區2023年通膨率為5.4%，2024年與2025年分別會降到3%與2.2%。預估歐元區2023年經濟成長率為0.9%(相較3月的預估值下修0.1%)，2023年經濟成長率為1.5%(相較3月的預估值下修0.1%)。

關於先前寬鬆貨幣購債(QE)的資產購買計畫(APP)，決議將所有先前購入的有價證券，自2023年7月起到期所有本金不再進行投資(縮表/QT)，相較2023年6月底之前平均每月減少150億歐元(到期不再投資上限)，縮減資產負債表(縮表)回收先前QE釋出資金的速度將加快。

關於另外一項寬鬆貨幣(QE)措施，因應肺炎疫情大流行緊急購買計畫(PEPP)，至少在2024年底之前會將該計畫購入的有價證券，到期本金都會進行再投資，避免干擾到適當的貨幣政策立場。

圖資來源：ECB

Monetary policy decisions (15 June 2023)

Inflation has been coming down but is projected to remain too high for too long. The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It therefore today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.

The rate increase today reflects the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission. According to the June macroeconomic projections, Eurosystem staff expect headline inflation to average 5.4% in 2023, 3.0% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. Indicators of underlying price pressures remain strong, although some show tentative signs of softening. Staff have revised up their projections for inflation excluding energy and food, especially for this year and next year, owing to past upward surprises and the implications of the robust labour market for the speed of disinflation. They now see it reaching 5.1% in 2023, before it declines to 3.0% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. Staff have slightly lowered their economic growth projections for this year and next year. They now expect the economy to grow by 0.9% in 2023, 1.5% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025.

At the same time, the Governing Council’s past rate increases are being transmitted forcefully to financing conditions and are gradually having an impact across the economy. Borrowing costs have increased steeply and growth in loans is slowing. Tighter financing conditions are a key reason why inflation is projected to decline further towards target, as they are expected to increasingly dampen demand.

The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target and will be kept at those levels for as long as necessary. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. In particular, its interest rate decisions will continue to be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The Governing Council confirms that it will discontinue the reinvestments under the asset purchase programme as of July 2023.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 4.00%, 4.25% and 3.50% respectively, with effect from 21 June 2023.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP portfolio is declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem does not reinvest all of the principal payments from maturing securities. The decline will amount to €15 billion per month on average until the end of June 2023. The Governing Council will discontinue the reinvestments under the APP as of July 2023.

As concerns the PEPP, the Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

Refinancing operations

As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations and their ongoing repayment are contributing to its monetary policy stance.