歐洲央行維持利率不變，聲明中釋出可能降息的訊息

歐洲央行4月11日召開決策會議，決議維持利率不變，歐元區三大主要利率分別是隔夜存款利率為4%，主要再融資利率(MRO)為4.5%、隔夜貸款利率(MLF)為4.75%，第5次決策會議不動利率，仍然是1999年歐元問世以來新高。

回顧ECB自2022年7月21日升息2碼開始啟動本波升息循環，至2023年9月14日共計升息10次，宣布時間依序為2022年7月21日升息2碼，2022年9月5日升息3碼，2022年10月27日升息3碼，2022年12月15日升息2碼，2023年2月2日升息2碼，2023年3月16日升息2碼，2023年5月4日升息1碼，2023年6月15日升息1碼，2023年7月27日升息1碼，以及2023年9月14日升息1碼，2022年共計升息4次，累計升幅為10碼(2.5%)，2023年升息6次，升幅為8碼(2%)，合計升幅18碼(4.5%)。

歐洲央行決策委員收到相關資訊，大致證實先前對於中期通膨前景評估，在食品與商品價格漲幅減緩帶動下，通膨持續降溫(通膨壓力下降)。多數潛在通膨指標正在放緩，薪資成長也逐漸減緩，企業正將部分勞動成本上漲納入利潤中。過去升息持續對需求構成壓力，融資條件仍然受到限制，這有助於壓低通膨。但國內價格壓力仍大，導致服務價格通膨居高不下。委員會決心確保通膨及時回到2%的中期目標，歐洲央行目前的關鍵利率水準對此目標做出重大貢獻。如果對通膨前景、潛在通膨動態與貨幣政策傳導力道的最新評估，能夠進一步加強對通膨持續朝向目標收斂的信心，那麼降低當前貨幣政策水準將是適當的。

過去進行的量化寬鬆(QE)之資產購買計畫(APP)，維持購入的有價證券到期本金不再進行投資，因此APP投資組合正在以可衡量與可預期的速度下降。而針對肺炎疫情的緊急購買計畫(PEPP)，也維持在2024年上半年將先前購入的有價證券到期本金全數進行再投資，2024年下半年將以每月75億歐元目標逐步減少，2024年底全數的有價證券到期本金停止再投資。

Monetary policy decisions (11 April 2024)

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information has broadly confirmed the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. Inflation has continued to fall, led by lower food and goods price inflation. Most measures of underlying inflation are easing, wage growth is gradually moderating, and firms are absorbing part of the rise in labour costs in their profits. Financing conditions remain restrictive and the past interest rate increases continue to weigh on demand, which is helping to push down inflation. But domestic price pressures are strong and are keeping services price inflation high.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It considers that the key ECB interest rates are at levels that are making a substantial contribution to the ongoing disinflation process. The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that its policy rates will stay sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary. If the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction. In any event, the Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction, and it is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP portfolio is declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

The Governing Council intends to continue to reinvest, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP during the first half of 2024. Over the second half of the year, it intends to reduce the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average. The Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.

The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

Refinancing operations

As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations and their ongoing repayment are contributing to its monetary policy stance.

MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT (11 April 2024)

Good afternoon, the Vice-President and I welcome you to our press conference.

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information has broadly confirmed our previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. Inflation has continued to fall, led by lower food and goods price inflation. Most measures of underlying inflation are easing, wage growth is gradually moderating, and firms are absorbing part of the rise in labour costs in their profits. Financing conditions remain restrictive and our past interest rate increases continue to weigh on demand, which is helping to push down inflation. But domestic price pressures are strong and are keeping services price inflation high.

We are determined to ensure that inflation returns to our two per cent medium-term target in a timely manner. We consider that the key ECB interest rates are at levels that are making a substantial contribution to the ongoing disinflation process. Our future decisions will ensure that our policy rates will stay sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary. If our updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase our confidence that inflation is converging to our target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction. In any event, we will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction, and we are not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

The decisions taken today are set out in a press release available on our website.

I will now outline in more detail how we see the economy and inflation developing and will then explain our assessment of financial and monetary conditions.

Economic activity

The economy remained weak in the first quarter. While spending on services is resilient, manufacturing firms are facing weak demand and production is still subdued, especially in energy-intensive sectors. Surveys point to a gradual recovery over the course of this year, led by services. This recovery is expected to be supported by rising real incomes, resulting from lower inflation, increased wages and improved terms of trade. In addition, the growth of euro area exports should pick up over the coming quarters, as the global economy recovers and spending shifts further towards tradables. Finally, monetary policy should exert less of a drag on demand over time.

The unemployment rate is at its lowest level since the start of the euro. At the same time, the tightness in the labour market continues to gradually decline, with employers posting fewer job vacancies.

Governments should continue to roll back energy-related support measures so that disinflation can proceed sustainably. Implementing the EU’s revised economic governance framework fully and without delay will help governments bring down budget deficits and debt ratios on a sustained basis. National fiscal and structural policies should be aimed at making the economy more productive and competitive, which would help to reduce price pressures in the medium term. At the European level, an effective and speedy implementation of the Next Generation EU programme and a strengthening of the Single Market would help foster innovation and increase investment in the green and digital transitions. More determined and concrete efforts to complete the banking union and the capital markets union would help mobilise the massive private investment necessary to achieve this, as the Governing Council stressed in its statement of 7 March 2024.

Inflation

Inflation has continued to decline, from an annual rate of 2.6 per cent in February to 2.4 per cent in March, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate. Food price inflation dropped to 2.7 per cent in March, from 3.9 per cent in February, while energy price inflation stood at -1.8 per cent in March, after -3.7 per cent in the previous month. Goods price inflation fell again in March, to 1.1 per cent, from 1.6 per cent in February. However, services price inflation remained high in March, at 4.0 per cent.

Most measures of underlying inflation fell further in February, confirming the picture of gradually diminishing price pressures. While domestic inflation remains high, wages and unit profits grew less strongly than anticipated in the last quarter of 2023, but unit labour costs remained high, in part reflecting weak productivity growth. More recent indicators point to further moderation in wage growth.

Inflation is expected to fluctuate around current levels in the coming months and to then decline to our target next year, owing to weaker growth in labour costs, the unfolding effects of our restrictive monetary policy, and the fading impact of the energy crisis and the pandemic. Measures of longer-term inflation expectations remain broadly stable, with most standing around 2 per cent.

Risk assessment

The risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside. Growth could be lower if the effects of monetary policy turn out stronger than expected. A weaker world economy or a further slowdown in global trade would also weigh on euro area growth. Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine and the tragic conflict in the Middle East are major sources of geopolitical risk. This may result in firms and households becoming less confident about the future and global trade being disrupted. Growth could be higher if inflation comes down more quickly than expected and rising real incomes mean that spending increases by more than anticipated, or if the world economy grows more strongly than expected.

Upside risks to inflation include the heightened geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, which could push energy prices and freight costs higher in the near term and disrupt global trade. Inflation could also turn out higher than anticipated if wages increase by more than expected or profit margins prove more resilient. By contrast, inflation may surprise on the downside if monetary policy dampens demand more than expected, or if the economic environment in the rest of the world worsens unexpectedly.

Financial and monetary conditions

Market interest rates have been broadly stable since our March meeting and wider financing conditions remain restrictive. The average interest rate on business loans edged down to 5.1 per cent in February, from 5.2 per cent in January. Mortgage rates were 3.8 per cent in February, down from 3.9 per cent in January.

Still elevated borrowing rates and associated cutbacks in investment plans led firms to further reduce their demand for loans in the first quarter of 2024, as reported in our latest bank lending survey. Credit standards for loans remained tight, with a further slight tightening for lending to firms and a moderate easing for mortgages.

Against this background, credit dynamics remain weak. Bank lending to firms grew marginally faster in February, at an annual rate of 0.4 per cent, up from 0.2 per cent in January. Growth in loans to households remained unchanged in February, at 0.3 per cent on an annual basis. Broad money – as measured by M3 – grew at a subdued rate of 0.4 per cent in February.

Conclusion

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. We are determined to ensure that inflation returns to our two per cent medium-term target in a timely manner. We consider that the key ECB interest rates are at levels that are making a substantial contribution to the ongoing disinflation process. Our future decisions will ensure that our policy rates will stay sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary. If our updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase our confidence that inflation is converging to our target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction. In any event, we will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction, and we are not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

In any case, we stand ready to adjust all of our instruments within our mandate to ensure that inflation returns to our medium-term target and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.

We are now ready to take your questions.

圖資來源：ECB