聯準會升息1碼，2022年至今共計升息4.75%

美國聯準會3月22日決策會議，決議升息1碼(0.25%)，調升後基準聯邦基金利率來到4.75%~5%，是2007年9月金融海嘯爆發以來新高水準，今年(2023年)以來已經2度升息，合計調升0.5%。

聯準會自2022年3月16日開始至今共升息9次(2022年7次共17碼+2023年2次共2碼)，累計升幅達19碼(4.75%)，回顧前8次宣布升息的時間與升息幅度，依序為2022年3月16日升息1碼、2022年5月4日升息2碼、2022年6月15日升息3碼、2022年7月27日升息3碼、2022年9月21日升息3碼、2022年11月2日升息3碼，2022年12月15日升息2碼，2023年2月1日升息1碼。

聯準會在聲明中表示，最近的指標表明支出與生產溫和成長，近幾個月來就業成長有所回升，並以強勁速度進行中，失業率一直很低，但通膨率仍然很高。

美國銀行體系健全且富有彈性，最近的事態可能會導致家庭與企業信貸條件收緊，並對經濟活動、就業、通膨等造成壓力，這些影響程度是不確定的，委員會仍然會高度關注通膨風險。委員會力求長期實現充分就業，以及通膨率2%的目標，為達目標決議將聯邦基金利率上調到4.75%~5%，自2023年3月23日起生效。聯準會預計會採取一些額外的緊縮措施可能是合適的，這樣有助於貨幣政策立場保持足夠的限制性，進而讓通膨能回落到2%。

縮減資產負債表計畫(QT/縮表)，仍然維持美國公債每月到期不續購目標600億美元，抵押貸款證券(MBS)每月到期不續購目標350億美元，合計950億美元。

這次會議中公布的經濟展望，預估2023年實質經濟成長率調降到0.4%，相較2022年12月的預估值下調0.1%；預估2024年實質經濟成長率調降到1.2%，相較2022年12月的預估值下調0.4%。預估2023年失業率調降到4.5%，相較2022年12月的預估值下調0.1%；預估2024年失業率為4.6%，與2022年12月的預估值相同。預估2023年個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數成長率調升到3.3%，相較2022年12月的預估值上調0.2%；預估2024年個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數成長率為2.5%，與2022年12月的預估值相同。預估2023年核心PCE物價指數成長率調升到3.6%，相較2022年12月的預估值上調0.1%；預估2024年核心PCE物價指數成長率調升到2.6%，相較2022年12月的預估值上調0.1%。

預估2023年聯邦基金利率中值為5.1%，與2022年12月預估值相同；預估2024年聯邦基金利率中值調升到4.3%，相較2022年12月的預估值上調0.2%。

在這次會議中公布的點陣圖當中，18位委員當中，有17位預估2023年聯邦基金利率會落在5%~5.25%以上，以目前聯邦基金利率區間4.75%~5%為準，年底前至少還有升息1碼以上的空間。18位委員當中，有14位預估2024年聯邦基金利率會落在4.5%~4.75%以下，以目前聯邦基金利率區間4.75%~5%為準，2024年有機會結束自2022年3月起的升息趨勢，轉為降息。

圖資來源：美國聯準會

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (March 22, 2023)

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued March 22, 2023

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on March 22, 2023:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 4.9 percent, effective March 23, 2023.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective March 23, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 4-3/4 to 5 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 5 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 4.8 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
• Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
• Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate to 5 percent, effective March 23, 2023. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the March 21-22 FOMC meeting (March 22, 2023)